| 16-NOV-09 | Discount Chains Lead Retail Sales … Home-Related Retail Sales Worsen … Philly Fed Survey Sees Q2-10 Return for Jobs Growth |
| 13-NOV-09 | Close Encounter With a Double Dip Could Swell Credit Risk Premia |
| 12-NOV-09 | Declining Trend of Jobless Claims Improves Outlook for Credit Spreads … Plunge by Homebuyer Mortgages Implies Economy Still Needs Federal Help |
| 12-NOV-09 | High Yield Borrowings: Bonds Soar While Leveraged Loans Struggle |
| 11-NOV-09 | High Yield Borrowing Ought to Grow by 10% to 15% Annually in 2010 … East Asian Economies Gain Speed |
| 10-NOV-09 | Upgrades Linked to Infusions of Common Equity Capital Jump to Highest Count since Q2-07 |
| 10-NOV-09 | Payrolls’ Shallower Decline Vis-À-Vis Deeper Plunge of Household-Survey Employment Hints Of Impending Top for Jobless Rate |
| 09-NOV-09 | Distribution of Credit Rating Revisions Signals Fewer Defaults, Narrower Spreads, and Faster Economic Growth for 2010 |
| 09-NOV-09 | Tightness of Bank Credit to Businesses Eases … Supply of New Bank Loan Programs Rises to 16-month High as High-Yield Issuance Soars |
| 06-NOV-09 | Despite 10.2% Jobless Rate, Continued Growth of Business Sales to Eventually Boost Payrolls |
| 05-NOV-09 | Productivity Surge Improves Employment Outlook … Contraction of Unit Labor Costs to Widen Profit Margins and Thin Credit Risk Premia |
| 04-NOV-09 | Fed Aims to Pare Credit Losses ASAP |
| 04-NOV-09 | ADP and ISM Service Index Warn of Deeper-than-expected Loss of Jobs for October |
| 04-NOV-09 | Composite Global PMI Suggests World Real GDP Growth Will Approach Trend in 2010 |
| 03-NOV-09 | Global Manufacturing PMI Hints of Upwardly Revised Forecast for World GDP … US’ October Auto Sales Top Views |
| 03-NOV-09 | Yearly Contraction of Orders and Sales Will Narrow, but Economy Needs More Help from Tech |
| 02-NOV-09 | Pending Home Sales Favor Q2-09 Bottoms for Home Sales and Home Prices |
| 02-NOV-09 | ISM Factory Index Bodes Well for Jobs, Output and Bond Yield Spreads |
| 30-OCT-09 | All Trick and No Treat … VIX’s Surge Seems Overdone … Tax Hikes May Keep Fed Funds Near 0% throughout 2010 |
| 30-OCT-09 | Employment Income Needs To Resume Growth Pronto |
| 30-OCT-09 | Lower Unit Labor Costs to Magnify Operating Leverage, Cut Double Dip Risks & Abet Spread Thinning |
| 29-OCT-09 | Consumer Spending and Residential Investment Will Slow in Q3-09 … Many Hurdles Impede Household Expenditures |
| 29-OCT-09 | Core Inflation to Slow … Heightened Operating Leverage May Swell Profits into 2010 |
| 28-OCT-09 | Real GDP Ex Inventories May Have Grown by Only 1.3% in Q3-09 |
| 28-OCT-09 | Disturbing Drop by September’s New Home Sales Compounded by a Likely October Drop for Homebuyer Mortgage Applications |
| 28-OCT-09 | Core Durable Goods Orders Improve Outlook for Payrolls |
| 27-OCT-09 | Wretched Income Expectations Warn of Lackluster Consumer Spending and Subdued Core Inflation |
| 27-OCT-09 | Consumer Confidence Can Be a Lagging Indicator |
| 27-OCT-09 | Case Shiller Signals a Firming of Q3-09’s Household Net Worth |
| 27-OCT-09 | High-Yield Default Outlook Is Historically Consistent With a 2.5% to 3% Yearly Increase for Q3-10’s Real GDP |
| 26-OCT-09 | District Manufacturing Indices Portend Thinner High Yield Bond Spread, Fewer Job Losses and a Moderation of Capex’s Contraction |
| 26-OCT-09 | Chicago Fed’s NAI Justifies Narrowing of High Yield Bond Spread and Hints of Near 4% Climb by Q3-09's Real GDP |
| 23-OCT-09 | Home Sales Now Form a V-Shaped Recovery |
| 23-OCT-09 | Global Sales of Semiconductors Recover Robustly Thus Far |
| 23-OCT-09 | High Times for High Yield Bond Issuance … High Yield Upgrades Top Downgrades Thus Far in Q4-09 |
| 23-OCT-09 | Emerging Market Country Bond Yield Spread Favors at Least 3.5% Growth for 2010’s World Real GDP |
| 22-OCT-09 | Initial and Continuing Claims Portend a Peak Jobless Rate of Less than 10.5% |
| 22-OCT-09 | Advances by Industrial Commodity Prices Follow from Rejuvenation of Global Expenditures |
| 22-OCT-09 | Leading Indicators Rule Out a Double Dip for Now |
| 22-OCT-09 | FHFA Warns of Possible Dip by Case Shiller Home Price Index |
| 21-OCT-09 | Real Estate Still Requires Federal Crutches |
| 21-OCT-09 | Beige Book Spots Uninspiring, Non-Inflationary Recovery … Populist Tone Weakens Dollar |
| 21-OCT-09 | Capex and Jobs Move Together … Capex Outlook Remains Subdued |
| 21-OCT-09 | Even Japan Joins East Asia’s Economic Acceleration |
| 20-OCT-09 | Arrow Points Up for Economic Activity … Thinner Spreads To Augment Supply of Credit |
| 20-OCT-09 | PPI Shows Inflation Fears Are Overblown |
| 19-OCT-09 | Lack of Credit and Loss of Jobs Stoke CRE Price Deflation |
| 19-OCT-09 | Federal Corporate Income Tax Receipts Incur Record-Smashing Plunge |
| 16-OCT-09 | As Risk Aversion Fades, Spending's Outlook Improves |
| 15-OCT-09 | High-Yield Credit Rating Revisions of Q4-09-to-date Put the High-Yield Bond Spread Well Under 700 BPs |
| 15-OCT-09 | Unemployment Benefits Data Imply Recovery Will Not Be “Jobless” Forever … Core Inflation Should Slow |
| 15-OCT-09 | Manufacturing Preobably Regains Momentum in October |
| 14-OCT-09 | Financial Asset Rally Bodes Well for Credit and Economy … World Recovery Fills Out |
| 13-OCT-09 | Fewer Immigrants, Aging Boomers and Massive Job Losses Limit Upsides of Both Inflation and Spending |
| 13-OCT-09 | Zillow Hints of a Fourth Straight Monthly Rise by Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 12-OCT-09 | Rating Revisions Hint of Q4-09 Top for Default Rate … Fallen-Angel Downgrades May Lag 2002's Zenith |
| 09-OCT-09 | Liquidity Surge Trims Downgrades and Lifts Upgrades, but Wide Spreads Warn Against Fed Tightening |
| 09-OCT-09 | Real Estate Linked Downgrades Drop Sharply from Q2-09 to Q3-09 |
| 09-OCT-09 | Red-Hot Expenditures Led Previous Inflationary Blow Outs |
| 09-OCT-09 | Undervalued Dollar and Livelier World Expenditures May Spur US Export Growth |
| 08-OCT-09 | Ample Slack Persists Despite Recent Sales Growth ... CP’s Expansion Follows from Gains in Business Spending |
| 07-OCT-09 | Historical Record Shows That Inflation Fears Are Overblown |
| 06-OCT-09 | Cheaper Dollar Now Is Of A Net Benefit to Economy and Credit Worth |
| 05-OCT-09 | Fewest Fallen Angels Since Q2-07 ... High Yield Bonds Are Not Overpriced According to EDF, VIX and Net Downgrades |
| 05-OCT-09 | ISM Composite Justifies Spread Narrowing, But Offers No Assurances for Q4-09 |
| 05-OCT-09 | Shrinking M2 amid V’s Collapse Warns of Slower Economy Unless Creditworthy have Reason to Spend |
| 02-OCT-09 | ECRI at Odds With VIX As Far As Predicting the Direction of the High Yield Bond Spread |
| 02-OCT-09 | Weak Jobs Report Challenges Outlook for Household Debt Repayment |
| 01-OCT-09 | Amid Generally Positive Data, September’s Dreadful Auto Sales Drove Equities Sharply Lower |
| 30-SEP-09 | Q3-09 Shows Fewest Net High Yield Downgrades Since Q3-07 and Fewest “Fallen Angel” Downgrades Since Q2-07. |
| 30-SEP-09 | High Yield Bonds Are Priced For a Further Narrowing of Monthly Job Losses |
| 30-SEP-09 | Chicago PMI’s Setback Puts September’s ISM Factory Index at 50.2 |
| 29-SEP-09 | Case Shiller Hints of Possible Second Straight Quarterly Increase for Homeowners’ Equity |
| 29-SEP-09 | Consumer Confidence: Conference Board Index Shows Stronger Simple Correlation With Retail Sales and Yield Spreads than Reuters/University of Michigan Index |
| 29-SEP-09 | Drop in CEO Pessimism Complements Lackluster Outlook for Sales, Cap Ex and Hiring |
| 28-SEP-09 | Steep Ratios of Money Funds to Both Market Value of Equity and GDP Indicate Well-Above-Average Risk Aversion |
| 28-SEP-09 | Regional Manufacturing Indices Favor Thinner Yield Spreads and Stabilization of Cap Ex |
| 25-SEP-09 | Bond Yield Spreads Should Thin Over the Next 15 Months |
| 25-SEP-09 | ISM Index and Regional Activity Indices Signal Renewed Upturn by New Orders |
| 24-SEP-09 | Jobless Claims’ Declining Trend Warrants Bond Yield Spread Narrowing |
| 24-SEP-09 | August’s Disappointing Sales of Existing Home Sales Probably Pushed 30-year Mortgage Yield Beneath 5% |
| 23-SEP-09 | Exceptionally Low Fed Funds Rate Follows from Perception of Still Very High Risk |
| 23-SEP-09 | Regional Indices Favor Higher ISM Manufacturing Index and Narrower Corporate Credit Risk Premia |
| 22-SEP-09 | Real Estate Price Deflation Still Menaces the Outlook for Credit |
| 22-SEP-09 | Aging of the Giant Baby-Boomer Cohort Will Help to Rein In Inflation |
| 22-SEP-09 | Home Prices May Sink Anew Absent Federal Support |
| 21-SEP-09 | Fewer Net Downgrades Signal a Thinner High Yield Bond Spread |
| 21-SEP-09 | Remedying Real Estate Price Deflation Should Be One of Washington’s Primary Policy Goals |
| 21-SEP-09 | High Yield Spread Thinning Will Continue According to ECRI’s Leading Index |
| 18-SEP-09 | V-Shaped Bond & Stock Rally plus Unfinished Real Estate Price Deflation Add Up to a Mediocre Business Outlook |
| 17-SEP-09 | V-Shaped Recovery by Financial Asset Prices Sparks Upturn by Household Wealth |
| 17-SEP-09 | Housing Data and Jobless Claims Firm Outlook for Consumer Spending |
| 16-SEP-09 | Climb by Capacity Utilization Would Imply Wider Profit Margins and Fewer Defaults |
| 16-SEP-09 | Surveyed CFOs Now Expect Profits to Grow and No Longer Project a Shrinkage of Wages |
| 15-SEP-09 | Drop in Risk Aversion Improves Outlook for Retail Sales |
| 14-SEP-09 | Improved Distribution of High-Yield Credit Rating Revisions Complements Positive Outlook for Credit |
| 11-SEP-09 | Wide Credit Risk Premia Limit the Upside for Business Activity |
| 10-SEP-09 | Stocks and Bonds Both Advance ... VIX Favors Much Thinner High Yield Bond Spread |
| 09-SEP-09 | Nascent Economic Upturn Should Support Thinner Corporate Credit Risk Premia |
| 08-SEP-09 | Average Non-Investment-Grade EDF Predicts a Lower Default Rate and a Thinner High-Yield Bond Spread |
| 08-SEP-09 | Abetted by De-Leveraging, Household Net Worth's Recovery Improves Prospects for 2010’s Consumer Spending |
| 04-SEP-09 | Sketchy Jobs Report Underscores Risks Facing Debt Repayment |
| 03-SEP-09 | Jobless Claims and the ISM’s Broadest Composite Imply Corporate Bonds Are Not Cheap |
| 03-SEP-09 | Consensus Probably Underestimated August’s Rebound by Retail Sales … Wealth’s Recovery May Buoy Consumer Spending |
| 02-SEP-09 | Bond Yield Spreads Will Balloon If Sales Growth Does Not Soon Join Cost Containment |
| 01-SEP-09 | ISM’s Manufacturing Index Suggests that High Yield Corporate Bonds Are Undervalued |
| 01-SEP-09 | Pending Home Sales Auger Well for Housing and Consumer Spending … Q3-09’s Existing Home Sales May Surge by 58% Annualized from Q2-09 |
| 01-SEP-09 | “Cash for Clunkers” Failed to Lift Pace of Auto Sales to Trend |
| 01-SEP-09 | Housing Starts Favor a Further Expansion of Private Residential Construction Spending |
| 31-AUG-09 | August’s ISM Manufacturing Index Should Favor a Thinner High Yield Bond Spread |
| 31-AUG-09 | Household Wealth’s Ongoing Rise Lessens Consumer Spending’s Downside Risk … High-Yield Bonds Imply Stocks May Not Be Grossly Overvalued |
| 21-AUG-09 | ECRI Index Supports Spread Narrowing … Credit Card Charge-Offs May Take Cue from Delinquencies |
| 21-AUG-09 | Consumer Spending to Benefit from Home Sales Recovery |
| 20-AUG-09 | Recession’s Over, but Jobless Claims Have Yet to Rule Out a Higher Unemployment Rate |
| 20-AUG-09 | Recovery by Home Sales Will Moderate Climb by Mortgage Nonpayment Rate |
| 20-AUG-09 | Philly/NY Fed Index Posts Highest Reading Since November 2007 |
| 19-AUG-09 | High-Yield Bond Spread’s Narrowing Trend Will Persist … High-Yield Bond Issuance Sizzles Thus Far in August |
| 19-AUG-09 | Total US Debt Slows Despite Surging Federal Debt … Declining Core Inflation Will Keep 10-year Treasury Yield Under 4% |
| 18-AUG-09 | Once High Yield Bond Spread Breaks Convincingly Under 700 BPs, Both Payrolls and Cap Ex Should Grow |
| 18-AUG-09 | Multi-Family Woes Sink Starts and Permits in August as 1-Family Starts and Permits Rise to Highest Levels since Oct-08 |
| 18-AUG-09 | PPI Sinks, But Real Estate Price Deflation Matters Much More … Core Import Prices Sag |
| 17-AUG-09 | Still Tight Bank Credit Becomes Less Restrictive |
| 17-AUG-09 | NY Fed Index Hints of Yet another Monthly Climb by US Production in August |
| 17-AUG-09 | US Government Data Show Home Improvement Spending Rose Significantly in Q2-09 |
| 14-AUG-09 | High Yield Spreads Widen as Investors Reassess Prospects for Corporate Revenues |
| 13-AUG-09 | Household Net Worth Should Rise In Q2-09 and Q3-09 and Break a String of 5 Straight Quarterly Setbacks |
| 13-AUG-09 | Steadying of Household Wealth and Home Sales to Support Retail Sales … Credit’s Now Priced for Sequential Growth by Retail Sales |
| 13-AUG-09 | Jobless Claims Do Not Support Forecasts of Steeper than 10% Unemployment Rate … High Yield Spread Looks for Fewer Jobless Claims |
| 13-AUG-09 | June’s Upbeat Duo of Inventory Depletion and Sales Growth Brightens Prospects for Orders, Production and Jobs |
| 12-AUG-09 | FOMC Says Economy Now Bottoms ... Anemic Recovery Should Keep Interest Rates Low |
| 12-AUG-09 | Improving Economy Narrows Annual Contraction US Government Tax Receipts |
| 12-AUG-09 | Exports Will Reinforce a Rising Trend for Business Sales and Extend Spread Narrowing |
| 11-AUG-09 | Contraction of Unit Labor Costs Helps Profitability … Thinner Credit Spreads Anticipate the Return of Growth to Business Sales |
| 11-AUG-09 | Global PMI Hints of World Economic Recovery … China’s Economy Withstands Severe Contraction by Exports |
| 10-AUG-09 | Steep Jump by Fed Funds Helped Trigger the Last Double Dip Recession |
| 10-AUG-09 | Rallies in Credit and Equities Enhance Corporate Debt's Repayment Outlook … Net High-Yield Downgrades Sink |
| 07-AUG-09 | Fewer Downgrades and Thinner Credit Spreads Will Nurture the Budding Economic Recovery |
| 06-AUG-09 | 2010’s Default Outlook Bodes Well for Yield Spreads, Liquidity and Business Spending |
| 06-AUG-09 | July Retail Sales Should Hurdle Lousy Same Store Comps and Grow by 0.9% Monthly |
| 05-AUG-09 | ISM Surveys on High Yield Bond Spread: Service-Sector Says It's Too Thin, Manufacturing Says It's Too Wide |
| 05-AUG-09 | July’s Likely Loss of Jobs Ranges from 358K to 447K … Aug-09’s Jobs Lost Should Narrow to 330K … Spreads Thinned During Jobless Recovery of Dec-01 through Aug-03 |
| 05-AUG-09 | Ugly Showing By Business Sales Should Improve in Q3-09, Or Else! |
| 04-AUG-09 | Q2-09's Advance by Pending Home Sales Strengthens Case for Steadier Home Prices … Q1-09 May Prove to be Bottom for Home Sales |
| 04-AUG-09 | Consumer Spending's Outlook Complements Recent Thinning of Credit Risk Premia … Savings' Surge Funds Repayment of Household Debt |
| 03-AUG-09 | Net Downgrades and EDFs Support a Further Thinning of the High-Yield Bond Spread |
| 03-AUG-09 | July’s ISM Factory Index Says Recovery Is Here and Favors Another 100 to 200 BPs Thinning of High Yield Bond Spread |
| 03-AUG-09 | “Cash for Clunkers” Falls Way Short of the Response to the Post 9/11 Sales Incentives of Oct-01 |
| 03-AUG-09 | Starts Improve Outlook for Residential Construction … Home Improvement Outlays Jump … Nonresidential Construction’s Q2-09 Rise Is At Risk |
| 31-JUL-09 | High Tech's Slowdown Curbs Business Sales |
| 31-JUL-09 | Considerable Upside Potential for Exports, Motor Vehicles, Transportation Equipment, Industrial Equipment and Home Furnishings |
| 31-JUL-09 | Improving Business Environment to Extend Thinning of Corporate Credit Risk Premia |
| 30-JUL-09 | Jobless Benefits Data Improve Outlooks for Economy and Corporate Credit |
| 30-JUL-09 | H2 Bond Issuance Typically Lags H1 Issuance by at Least 20% |
| 29-JUL-09 | New Orders Steady Somewhat Sequentially, but Remain Down Sharply From a Year Earlier |
| 29-JUL-09 | Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Have Yet to Corroborate a Bottom for Home Sales |
| 28-JUL-09 | Case Shiller Hints of End to Home Price Deflation That Would Curb Credit Losses |
| 28-JUL-09 | July’s Dip by Confidence Does Not Refute Expectations of Consumer Spending Growth and Thinner Yield Spreads |
| 27-JUL-09 | July’s Retreats By Philly Fed and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Indices Imply Spreads Are Vulnerable to Renewed Widening |
| 27-JUL-09 | Tentative Bottoming of Housing Starts and Home Sales Improves Outlook for Credit |
| 24-JUL-09 | Jobless Recovery May Not Reverse Corporate Bond Rally |
| 23-JUL-09 | Homebuilder CDS Spread Expects Impending Bottom for New Home Sales |
| 23-JUL-09 | Fewer Jobless Claims Favor Thinner Corporate Credit Risk Premia |
| 23-JUL-09 | Peaking of Credit Card Charge-Off Rate May Impend |
| 23-JUL-09 | Reasons to Look for Thinner Spreads and Higher Share Prices Are Global in Scope |
| 22-JUL-09 | Corporate Credit Bodes Well For Equities |
| 22-JUL-09 | Starts and Existing Home Sales Both May Have Bottomed in Q1-09 … Claims Signal Narrower Loss of 417K Jobs in July |
| 22-JUL-09 | FHFA Home Price Deflation Troughed in Dec-08 … Major Home Price Indices Are Flawed |
| 21-JUL-09 | Rally in Corporate Credit Regains Momentum |
| 21-JUL-09 | Plunge in Nonfinancial-Company Net Stock Buybacks Abets Thinning of Corporate Credit Risk Premia |
| 21-JUL-09 | Commercial Real Estate Price Deflation Intensifies |
| 21-JUL-09 | High-Yield Spread Will Thin Further If Consensus GDP Forecast for Q3-09 Proves Correct |
| 20-JUL-09 | Leading Indicators Imply Downside Economic Risks Fade … ECRI Portends Extended Thinning of High Yield Bond Spread |
| 20-JUL-09 | Equities Begin to Catch Up With Corporate Bond Rally |
| 20-JUL-09 | Narrowing of Job Losses Is Sufficient for Thinning of High-Yield Bond Spread |
| 20-JUL-09 | Fed Exposure to CP Drops as CP Outstandings Post Record Deep Plunge |
| 17-JUL-09 | Building Permits, Jobless Claims and ECRI Portend Rising Revenues and Thinner Credit Risk Premia |
| 16-JUL-09 | Jobless Claims Imply Economy May Be Catching up with Corporate Credit’s Vigorous Recover |
| 16-JUL-09 | Recovery by Capital Spending Requires a Stabilization of Business Sales |
| 16-JUL-09 | China’s Economic Rejuvenation Helps to Explain Recovery by Emerging Market Country Bonds … EU Autos Sales Grew in June |
| 15-JUL-09 | Likely Q3-09 Bottoming of Capacity Utilization Will Improve Outlook for Business Credit Risk |
| 15-JUL-09 | Upcoming Slide by Core Inflation Will Help Trim Corporate Bond Yields and Keep Mortgage Yields Very Low |
| 14-JUL-09 | Retail Sales Report Shows That Companies with Exposure to Housing and Autos Get Hit Hard |
| 14-JUL-09 | Despite June's PPI, Price Deflation and Disinflation Weigh Heavily on Corporate Credit |
| 13-JUL-09 | Q2-09’s Shrinkage of Corporate Income Tax Receipts Narrows from Q1-09’s Record Deep Plunge |
| 13-JUL-09 | Recent Savings from Lower Interest Expense and Cheaper Energy Bypassed Spending and Boosted Savings … Deposits Benefit |
| 13-JUL-09 | Price Discounting May Harm Business Sales, but Should Help Keep Treasury Bond Yields Low |
| 10-JUL-09 | Stimulus and Exports Will Soon Slow the Business Sales Freefall |
| 10-JUL-09 | Housing Deflation Behind Rating Downgrades and Lower Treasury Yields |
| 09-JUL-09 | A Declining Trend for Downgrades Will Prompt a Narrowing of Bond Yield Spreads |
| 09-JUL-09 | Jobless Claims Portend Thinner Spreads and Smaller Monthly Job Losses |
| 09-JUL-09 | Sinking Same Store Sales Jeopardize Capital Structures of Highly Leveraged Retailers |
| 09-JUL-09 | High Yield Default Rate May Sink from Jun-09's 11.0% to 5.0% by Jun-10 |
| 08-JUL-09 | High Yield Default Forecast Lowered …. High Yield Bonds Could Return at Least 15% by June 2010 |
| 08-JUL-09 | Treasury Bond Rally May Bring Back the Sub-5% 30-year Mortgage Yield |
| 08-JUL-09 | Jobless Claims May or May Not Confirm Gloom of June Jobs Report … Broad Proxy for Consumer Credit Still Grows |
| 07-JUL-09 | Unless a New Dark Age Is Upon Us, a Bear Market Will Not Persist Through 2018 |
| 07-JUL-09 | Modest Spread Narrowing Through Year-End 2009 … Major Spread Thinning Likely for 2010 |
| 07-JUL-09 | Inflation Fears Are Overblown In a Struggling Global Economy That Requires Price Discounting |
| 06-JUL-09 | Corporate Credit Better Withstands Jobs Drop Than Do Stocks … Medium-Grade Yield Predicts 15% Gain for Stocks Over Next 6 Months |
| 06-JUL-09 | Stocks Overreacted to Weak Jobs Report … ISM, Jobless Claims, Regional Indices & Announced Job Cuts Portend Narrowing of Job Losses |
| 06-JUL-09 | Auto Sales Grow Briskly in Brazil and China … Cash for Clunkers Will Boost H2-09’s US Auto Sales … Hints of Growth for Japan’s Q2-09 Real GDP |
| 02-JUL-09 | Jobless Claims and ECRI Index Portend an End to Recession and Thinner Corporate Bond Yield Spreads |
| 02-JUL-09 | Slowest 3-Month Rise by Average Wage on Record to Curb Inflation, Contain Retail Sales, and Spur Profits, Eventually |
| 02-JUL-09 | Milder Climb by Jobless Rate Favors Improved Yearly Comparisons for Retail Sales |
| 01-JUL-09 | Private Nonresidential Construction Outlays Supply Another Upside Surprise |
| 01-JUL-09 | ISM Hints of Recovery, but Business Sales May Lag Trend Well into the Next Upturn and Pressure Credit |
| 01-JUL-09 | Higher Treasury Bond Yields Menace Housing and Retail Sales |
| 01-JUL-09 | Payrolls May Not Return to December 2007’s Peak Until Early 2014 |
| 30-JUN-09 | Job and Income Insecurities Diminish Confidence |
| 30-JUN-09 | Home Price Deflation Ebbs … Smaller Credit Losses May Follow |
| 30-JUN-09 | Planned Increase in Q3-09 Auto Output Reinforces Positive View of Business Cycle |
| 29-JUN-09 | Regional Indices Put June’s ISM Factory Index at 47 … Cap Ex’s Contraction May Ease Considerably by Q3-09 |
| 29-JUN-09 | National Activity Index Says Though Recovery May Not Be Far Away, High-Yield Bonds Are Richly Priced |
| 29-JUN-09 | Q2-09 to Show Fewest High-Yield Downgrades since Q3-08 … 19 Fallen Angel Downgrades Tower Over 2 Rising Star Upgrades |
| 29-JUN-09 | Japan’s Industrial Output Rises for 3rd Straight Month in May |
| 26-JUN-09 | Yields and Spreads of Bonds Graded Single-A or Lower Should Trend Lower Through Year-End 2010 |
| 26-JUN-09 | Higher Propensity to Save Reduces Monetary Stimulus' Tendency to Inflate |
| 26-JUN-09 | ECRI Index and Consumer Confidence Indicate Recession Is All but Over |
| 25-JUN-09 | Lowest VIX Since September 12, 2008 Improves Outlook for Credit |
| 25-JUN-09 | Business Spending On Transportation Equipment Is Ripe for a Rebound … Q1-09's Level Was a 40-Year Low |
| 25-JUN-09 | Jobless Claims Hint of an Uneven, Non-Inflationary Recovery ... 10-Yr Treasury Yield May Dip Under 3.5% |
| 24-JUN-09 | FOMC Sees Disinflationary Effect of Low Resource Usage Overpowering the Inflationary Impact of Costlier Commodities |
| 24-JUN-09 | Corporate Bond Yield Spreads Favor a 15% Advance by Market Value of Common Stock from June 24 to Year-End 2009 |
| 24-JUN-09 | New Home Sales Disappoint, But Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Hurdle Higher Mortgage Yields for Now |
| 24-JUN-09 | Core Orders Improve But Remain Far Under Year Earlier Levels |
| 22-JUN-09 | Inflation Fears Should Subside … Remedying Budget Gap Worries Won’t Be Easy |
| 22-JUN-09 | Private- Sector Deleveraging Has Far To Go … April’s CRE Price Index Incurs Record Breaking Declines |
| 19-JUN-09 | Distribution of High Yield Credit Rating Changes Blocks Further Spread Narrowing … 18 “Fallen Angels” Top Zero “Rising Stars” |
| 18-JUN-09 | Growth of Q2-09's Composite LEI May Indicate Recession's Demise |
| 18-JUN-09 | Jobless Claims Suggest Recession Will Expire by Summer's End |
| 18-JUN-09 | Philly Fed Survey Complements Notions of Recession's Impending Demise |
| 17-JUN-09 | Outlooks for GDP and Resource Utilization Suggest Core Inflation May Not Bottom Until Q2-10 |
| 17-JUN-09 | Rent Disinflation Will Help to Slow Core CPI Inflation |
| 17-JUN-09 | Purchasing Power Parity and US Current Account Imply Dollar Is Not About to Incur an Inflationary Collapse |
| 17-JUN-09 | Run Up In Treasury Bond Yields Slashes Mortgage Applications |
| 17-JUN-09 | Next Economic Recovery Begins Once Industrial Output Stops Falling Monthly |
| 15-JUN-09 | Medium Grade Yields Decline Despite Treasury Sell-Off … Expect More Spread Narrowing |
| 15-JUN-09 | Real Estate Price Deflation Trumps CPI Inflation in Terms of Long-Term Economic Risk |
| 15-JUN-09 | Dip by June's NAHB Housing Market Index Hints of Stepped Up Efforts to Cut Mortgage Yields |
| 15-JUN-09 | Forward Looking NY State Manufacturers Index Projects a Summertime End to Recession |
| 15-JUN-09 | Agencies Bare the Brunt of Cutbacks in Foreign Holdings of US Securities |
| 12-JUN-09 | Consumer Sentiment's Tentative Recovery Hints of a Sluggish, Low-Inflation Economic Upturn |
| 12-JUN-09 | Wage Deceleration Will Curb Core Inflation |
| 12-JUN-09 | Consensus View Mars Long-Term Prospects for 10-year Treasury Note |
| 12-JUN-09 | US Inflation Fears May Be Overdone as Annual Rate of Core Import Price Deflation Deepens |
| 11-JUN-09 | Low Growth, Low Inflation & Deleveraging May Lower 10-Year Treasury Yield to 3.33% of June 2003 ... YTD Returns Show High-Yield's 30% Swamping Treasuries' -6% |
| 11-JUN-09 | Widening of Federal Budget Gap Offsets Drag of Record Private-Sector Deleveraging |
| 11-JUN-09 | Higher Mortgage Yields Risk Steepening Foreclosures' Climb … Record Low Ratio of Homeowners' Equity to After-Tax Income |
| 11-JUN-09 | Retail Sales Still Struggle and Favor More in the Way of Disinflation … Jobless Claims Hint of a Mild Recovery |
| 09-JUN-09 | Record Deep Contraction of Business Sales Limits Scope for Bond Yield Spread Narrowing |
| 09-JUN-09 | High Unemployment’s Record Long Duration Signals Disinflationary Wage Growth That Will Boost Profits in a Big Way by Mid 2010 |
| 08-JUN-09 | High Yield Spreads May Widen According to Net Downgrades and Default Outlook or Narrow According to EDF and VIX |
| 08-JUN-09 | High-Yield Bond Issuance Surge Helps to Improve Distribution of High-Yield Rating Changes |
| 05-JUN-09 | Forward Looking Index Says Recession's End Impends |
| 05-JUN-09 | Washington May Have to Cut Spending Plans to Placate Bondholders |
| 05-JUN-09 | May's Drop in Private-Sector Hours Was Deeper Than Slide in Jobs |
| 05-JUN-09 | Disinflationary Employment Report Improves 2010's Outlook for Profits |
| 05-JUN-09 | Deepest Drop Ever By Office-Type Jobs Menaces Commercial Real Estate |
| 04-JUN-09 | High Yield Bond Spread Breaks Under 1,000 BPs … High-Yield Default Rate Forecast Is Cut |
| 04-JUN-09 | Initial State Jobless Claims Imply Recession's End Draws Near |
| 04-JUN-09 | May's Retail Sales Should More Than Recover from April's 0.4% Monthly Slide |
| 03-JUN-09 | 2009-to-date's 28% Total Return from High-Yield Bonds Bodes Well for Stocks … IG CDX Sinks to Lowest Reading in Nearly a Year |
| 03-JUN-09 | Costlier 30-year Mortgage Yield Menaces Outlook for Mortgage Applications |
| 03-JUN-09 | Trimming of Payrolls Ebbs |
| 03-JUN-09 | ISM Composite Has Yet to Convincingly Signal Recession's End |
| 03-JUN-09 | Substantial Upside Potential Can Be Found Among Extraordinarily Low Orders |
| 02-JUN-09 | High Yield Credit Risk Premia Now Thin More Rapidly Than Credit Worth Firms |
| 02-JUN-09 | Auto Sales & Pending Home Sales Hint of a Q4-09 Start for the Next Economic Recovery |
| 02-JUN-09 | Base Metals Put Price of Oil at $62 … Inflation Fears Will Fade Absent a Spending Surge |
| 02-JUN-09 | Euro's Firming Is At Odds With the Fundamentals |
| 01-JUN-09 | High Yield Corporate Bonds Signal 15% Advance by Market Value of Common Stock for Yearlong 2009 |
| 01-JUN-09 | Shrinkage of Real Consumer Spending Implies Inflation Fears Are Grossly Overdone |
| 01-JUN-09 | ISM Manufacturing Index Signals Possible Summertime End to US Recession |
| 01-JUN-09 | Base Metals Prices and Global PMI Detect Approach of World's Next Economic Upturn |
| 01-JUN-09 | Construction Outlays Imply Real Business Investment's Quarterly Drop Will Narrow Considerably in Q2-09 |
| 29-MAY-09 | Unlike 2008, Latest Climb by Treasury Yields Is Joined by Narrowing of Corporate Bond Yield Spreads |
| 27-MAY-09 | Outlook for Home Sales Is Uninspiring |
| 27-MAY-09 | Prices of Foreclosed Homes Can Exaggerate Home Price Deflation When Not Adjusted for Quality |
| 26-MAY-09 | Consumer Confidence and Regional Manufacturing Indices Sense a Summertime End to Recession |
| 26-MAY-09 | No Chance of Stable Home Prices Until Home Sales Establish a Rising Trend |
| 26-MAY-09 | Firming of National Activity Index Complements High Yield Bond Spread Narrowing |
| 26-MAY-09 | Federal Income Tax Receipts' Record Yearly Plunge Highlights Dismal Profits … But Global Economy's on the Mend |
| 22-MAY-09 | Forward-Looking Index of Economy May Post Steepest 2-Month Climb on Record … Supports High Yield Spread Thinning |
| 22-MAY-09 | Recession's Waning According to Credit Spreads and Commodity Prices |
| 21-MAY-09 | Bond Issuance Powers Upswing in High-Yield Upgrades … Fallen Angel Downgrades Occur at Record Smashing Pace |
| 21-MAY-09 | Jobless Claims Hint of Autumn Start for Next Economic Recovery |
| 21-MAY-09 | Composite LEI Says Recession's End Is Not Far Off |
| 21-MAY-09 | Industrial Commodity Price Growth Implies the Worst Has Passed For the World Economy |
| 20-MAY-09 | Record Incidence of Permanent Job Losses Follows from Wretched Operating Profits |
| 20-MAY-09 | Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Shrink … Refis Will Partly Offset Employment Income’s Drop |
| 19-MAY-09 | Recession May Yet Drown in a Sea of Liquidity |
| 18-MAY-09 | EDFs and New Issue Activity Show Room for Thinner High Yield Bond Spreads |
| 18-MAY-09 | Real GDP May Not Return to Q2-08 High Until Q1-11 |
| 18-MAY-09 | Smaller Monthly Rise by Still Weak NAHB Index Warns of Disappointing Home Sales |
| 15-MAY-09 | Real Estate Price Deflation's Destructive Force Far Outweighs the Tolerable Risks of CPI Inflation |
| 14-MAY-09 | Unfinished Slackening of Labor Market Implies Inflation Fears Are Overblown |
| 14-MAY-09 | Institutional Investors Sit on a $2.5 Trillion Mountain of Cash |
| 13-MAY-09 | Food Store and Gas Station Sales Skew April's Retail Sales Lower |
| 13-MAY-09 | Home Mortgage Foreclosure Rate's Steep Ascent Moderates Somewhat |
| 13-MAY-09 | Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Disappoint … Lower Mortgage Yields Needed |
| 13-MAY-09 | Record Deflation for Non-Oil Import Price Index … Dollar's Undervaluation Limits Its Downside Risk |
| 13-MAY-09 | For Korea, Current Global Recession Lacks Severity of 1998's Asian Financial Crisis |
| 12-MAY-09 | Outlook for US Exports Improves |
| 11-MAY-09 | Narrowing of High-Yield Credit Risk Premia May Have Gotten Ahead of Fundamentals |
| 11-MAY-09 | Ageing Population Weighs Against V-Shaped Recovery |
| 08-MAY-09 | Slower Wage Growth Will Tame Inflation and Widen Profit Margins |
| 08-MAY-09 | Ebbing of Jobless Rate's Climb Will Facilitate Spread Narrowing |
| 07-MAY-09 | Defaults and Downgrades Say the High Yield Spread's Too Thin … Fallen Angel Downgrades Maintain Record Pace |
| 07-MAY-09 | Higher Share Prices and Thinner Credit Risk Premia Can Trim Credit Loss Forecasts |
| 07-MAY-09 | Layoffs of Chrysler, GM and Parts Suppliers May Swell Jobless Claims |
| 07-MAY-09 | Retail Sales May Recover From March's 1.2% Drop With a 0.6% Gain for April |
| 06-MAY-09 | Fatter Payrolls Mean Thinner Spreads and Lower Corporate Bond Yields |
| 06-MAY-09 | ADP and Challenger Say the Worst May Be Over for Job Losses |
| 06-MAY-09 | Mortgage Refis Help to Cut Household Interest Expense by 7.5% from Q4-07 Apex |
| 05-MAY-09 | ISM Composite Reinforces the "Worst Is Over" View and Opens Way for Thinner Spreads |
| 05-MAY-09 | Medium Grade Spread Narrows to Band That Still Exceeds Each Monthly Average from April-33 through Sep-09 |
| 04-MAY-09 | Tightening of Bank Loan Standards Ebbs, but Not by Enough to Normalize Credit |
| 04-MAY-09 | Recent Slide by Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Disputes Rise by Pending Home Sales |
| 04-MAY-09 | Loss of GDP to Construction's Contraction May Be Ebbing |
| 01-MAY-09 | Fed Can Remedy An Injurious Climb By 10-Year Treasury Yield |
| 01-MAY-09 | ISM Factory Index Hints of the Nearness of Recession’s End |
| 01-MAY-09 | Base Metals Prices Imply Worst Has Passed for Global Industrial Activity |
| 30-APR-09 | 2nd Half 2009 Narrowing of Real GDP’s Yearly Contraction Will Help to Thin Bond Yield Spreads |
| 30-APR-09 | ECI’s Record Deceleration Will Stoke Profits Once Sales Recover |
| 30-APR-09 | Consumer Spending’s Stabilization Requires Much Smaller Job Losses by Mid-Year |
| 29-APR-09 | Fed’s Extraordinary Efforts Favor Narrower Corporate Bond Yield Spreads |
| 29-APR-09 | Real GDP Is Likely to Edge Higher from Q1-09 to Q2-09 |
| 29-APR-09 | Homebuyer Mortgage Applications’ Latest Slide Shows Need for Lower Mortgage Yields |
| 28-APR-09 | Fallen-Angel Downgrades Are On Track to Set Record in 2009 |
| 28-APR-09 | Ebbing of Case Shiller Home Price Deflation May Be Underway |
| 28-APR-09 | Recession May Expire This Summer If Consumer Confidence Builds on Recent Gains |
| 27-APR-09 | High-Yield Downgrades Warn of a Possible Reversal of Latest High-Yield Bond Rally |
| 27-APR-09 | District Bank Surveys Say ISM Factory Will Rise from March’s 36.3 to about 40 in April … Cutbacks in Planned Cap Ex Moderate |
| 24-APR-09 | Shrinkage of Employment Income Offsets Record Home Affordability |
| 24-APR-09 | Bleak Outlook for H1-09’ Cap Ex Signals a Further Shrinkage of Business Debt |
| 23-APR-09 | April’s Unemployment Rate May Approach 9% |
| 22-APR-09 | Homebuyer Mortgage Application Data Underscore Need for Lower Mortgage Yields |
| 22-APR-09 | Second Straight Monthly Increase of FHFA Home Price Index Implies Case-Shiller’s Home Price Deflation Should Ebb |
| 21-APR-09 | IMF’s Forecast of Mammoth Credit Losses Testifies to the Destructive Power of Price Deflation |
| 21-APR-09 | LIBOR Dips to New Cycle Low as Financial Company Bond Spread Narrows |
| 20-APR-09 | Chicago Fed’s NAI for March Is Consistent with High Yield Bond Spread of 1,326 BPs |
| 20-APR-09 | LEI and ECRI Sense Milder Slide for Real GDP … ECRI Puts High-Yield Spread at 1,300 BPs |
| 17-APR-09 | High Yield Bonds Rally Despite Record Net Downgrades and Fast Rising Default Rate |
| 17-APR-09 | Credit Card Charge-Off Rate Coincides With and Mortgage Late Payment Rate Leads the Unemployment Rate |
| 17-APR-09 | Consumer Sentiment Supports a Possible End-of-Summer Conclusion to Current Recession |
| 16-APR-09 | High-Yield Spread Shows Far Stronger Correlation with Net Downgrades than with Downgrade per Upgrade Ratio, Downgrade Ratio or Default Rate |
| 16-APR-09 | Rising Unemployment and Home Price Deflation Underscore Imperative of Lower Mortgage Yields |
| 16-APR-09 | Continuing Claims Imply April’s Jobless Rate Could Approach 9% |
| 16-APR-09 | Middle Atlantic Manufacturers Sense That Recession’s Severity Ebbs |
| 15-APR-09 | NY State Manufacturers Hint of Milder Decline for US Industrial Output |
| 15-APR-09 | Beige Book and Red Metal Concur On Moderation of Economic Slump |
| 15-APR-09 | Rapid Real Wage Growth Countered by Near Record Contraction of Real Consumer Spending |
| 14-APR-09 | Deep Drop by Retail Sales Includes Record Underperformance by Auto Dealer Sales Vis-à-vis Unit Auto Sales |
| 14-APR-09 | Record Plunge by Business Sales Stokes Delinquencies, Defaults and Bankruptcies |
| 13-APR-09 | Declining VIX, Lowered Default Forecast, and Sliding EDFs Improve Outlook for High-Yield Bond Spread |
| 13-APR-09 | Moving Six-Month Sum of US’ Corporate Income Tax Receipts Incurs Record Deep Plunge |
| 03-APR-09 | Stabilization of Expenditures Lays Foundation for Steadying of Payrolls |
| 03-APR-09 | Rising Unemployment Will Trim Wage Growth |
| 03-APR-09 | Record Breaking Plunge by Private Service-Sector Jobs Menaces Commercial Real Estate |
| 02-APR-09 | Thinnest Yield Gap between Mortgages and Treasuries since Jan-08 … 3-Month LIBOR Extends Slide as Latest TSLF Auction Proves Unneeded |
| 02-APR-09 | Q1-09’s Outstandings of Bonds Graded Less-than-Caa2 Set Record |
| 01-APR-09 | Severity of Global Industrial Recession Subsides According to PMI and Base Metals Prices |
| 01-APR-09 | March Auto Sales Favor Recovery by Quarterly Annualized Change of Real Consumer Spending from Q4-08’s 4.3% Drop to a Mild Rise for Q1-09 |
| 01-APR-09 | Pending Home Sales and Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Improve Outlook for Housing’s Peak Spring Selling Season |
| 31-MAR-09 | High-Yield and Investment-Grade Downgrades Set New Record Highs in Q1-09 |
| 31-MAR-09 | Record Downgrades to Caa3 or Less Signals Approach of Record Post-WWII Default Rate |
| 31-MAR-09 | Consumers' Deflationary Income Expectations Imply Bond Yields Are Too High |
| 31-MAR-09 | Residential and Commercial Real Estate Price Deflation Will Curb Product Price Inflation |
| 31-MAR-09 | Regional Soundings Imply ISM's March Index of US Manufacturing Will Stay Above Dec-08 Low |
| 30-MAR-09 | More Wretched Data on Industrial Activity from Japan and Europe |
| 30-MAR-09 | Real Household Wealth per Capita Drops to Six-Year Low |
| 30-MAR-09 | Detroit's Unit Sales in the US Market Are Now in the 10th Straight Year of Being Locked in Reverse |
| 27-MAR-09 | Wide Gap Between Yields on Outstanding and New Mortgages May Prompt 100% Annual Surge by Mortgage Refis |
| 27-MAR-09 | Real Consumer Spending may Grow by 1% Annualized from Q4-08 to Q1-09 |
| 26-MAR-09 | Outlook for Profit Margin Ratio Favors an Improvement in Credit Fundamentals by Q4-09 |
| 26-MAR-09 | Outlook Will Improve the Longer Jobless Claims Remain Under Current Peak of 670,000 |
| 26-MAR-09 | Outlook for Unemployment Warns of Record Charge-Off Rate for Bank Commercial Real Estate Loans |
| 26-MAR-09 | High Yield Bonds Outperform Investment-grade by Wide Margin in March |
| 25-MAR-09 | Mortgage Applications Marginally Improve Outlooks for Home Sales and Consumer Spending |
| 25-MAR-09 | Don’t Take Monthly Jump by Highly Volatile Orders Too Seriously … Ultra-Wide Credit Risk Premia Helped to Slash Orders |
| 25-MAR-09 | Policy Actions Help to Thin High Yield Bond Spread by Nearly 150 Basis Points Since March 9 |
| 24-MAR-09 | Bank-Owned Residential Real Estate Debt And Consumer Loans Grow, as Bank Holdings of Business Debt Shrink |
| 24-MAR-09 | January’s Rise by FHFA Home Price Index Was Narrowly Confined to Homes Funded With Conforming Mortgages |
| 23-MAR-09 | US Treasury Efforts to Lift Market Price of Distressed Debt Closer to Economic Value Should Narrow Credit Spreads |
| 23-MAR-09 | A Glimmer of Hope from Housing, But a Drop by March’s Existing Home Sales Is Likely |
| 20-MAR-09 | Corporate Bond Yield Spreads May Narrow to Still Wide Bands by Year's End |
| 20-MAR-09 | Commercial Property Price Index Sinks by Record 5.5% Monthly in Jan-09 |
| 19-MAR-09 | Corporate Bond Yields Are Likely to Be Significantly Lower By Year's End |
| 19-MAR-09 | Higher Commodity Prices Reflect Overblown Expectations of Impending Economic Recovery |
| 18-MAR-09 | Fed Intensifies Efforts to End Asset Price Deflation Via Lower Bond Yields |
| 18-MAR-09 | CPI Implies Fed Might Steer US Away from Disruptive Bout of Product Price Deflation |
| 17-MAR-09 | Record Pace for Downgrades to Caa3-or-Less Reinforces Expectations of Record Post WWII High for Default Rate |
| 17-MAR-09 | Home Sales -- Not Starts -- Will Set Housing's Bottom ... Housing-Linked Downgrades Weigh on Bank & Finance |
| 16-MAR-09 | Declining Capacity Utilization Bodes Poorly for Margins, Spreads & Defaults and Underscores Need for Quantitative Easing |
| 16-MAR-09 | Worsening Outlooks for Industrial Production and Housing Diverge from Retail Sales’ Improving Trend |
| 13-MAR-09 | Dollar Exchange Rate Posts Steepest Yearly Appreciation Since 1985 |
| 12-MAR-09 | Absolute Value of 2008's Drop in Private-Sector Net Borrowing Exceeded Record $1 Trillion Jump in Federal Net Borrowing |
| 11-MAR-09 | Tax Receipts Warn of a Q1-09 Deepening of Profits' Yearly Drop … Wider High Yield Spread at Odds With Lower VIX |
| 11-MAR-09 | Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Warn of Fewer Home Sales Despite Record Affordability |
| 11-MAR-09 | UAW Shows Why Core Inflation Will Slow … Tax Cuts Spur China's Auto Sales |
| 10-MAR-09 | Credit Crunch Devastates Supply of Newly Rated Bank Loan Programs |
| 10-MAR-09 | Real Business Sales and Core Business Sales Incur Record Year-to-Year Setbacks |
| 10-MAR-09 | Steep Treasury Yield Curve Suggests Consensus Has Grossly Underestimated 2009's Second-Half Economic Growth |
| 09-MAR-09 | CDX Warns of Wider High-Yield Bond Spread … Downgrades to Lowest Rungs of High Yield Ladder Proceed at Record Pace |
| 06-MAR-09 | Recent Broadening of Corporate Bond Spreads Adds to Already Considerable Economic Risks |
| 06-MAR-09 | Very Weak February Jobs Report Boosts Odds of Quantitative Easing |
| 05-MAR-09 | High Yield Spread Now Seems Wide Vis-à-vis Lowered Default Forecast |
| 05-MAR-09 | State Jobless Benefit Data Warn of Deeper Plunge by Payrolls |
| 05-MAR-09 | Same Store Sales Defy Payrolls and Hint of Consumer Spending's Stabilization |
| 05-MAR-09 | Fed May Soon Follow Bank of England and Announce Quantitative Easing Aimed at Steadying Housing |
| 04-MAR-09 | ISM and CFO Survey Warn of Wretched Earnings, a Plunge in Cap Ex, and Very Wide Bond Yield Spreads |
| 04-MAR-09 | ADP and CFO Survey Warn of Deeper Drop by Payrolls for February and March |
| 04-MAR-09 | Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Warn of Fewer Home Sales and a Deepening of Home Price Deflation |
| 03-MAR-09 | Auto Sales Set New Record Low Vis-à-vis Payrolls … Non-Mortgage Consumer Loans Deteriorate |
| 03-MAR-09 | Pending Home Sales and Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Underscore Pressing Need for Lower Mortgage Yields |
| 02-MAR-09 | Charge-Off Rate on Bank Commercial Real Estate Loans Rises Sharply |
| 02-MAR-09 | Q1-09's Drop in US Real Consumer Spending Should Be Much Shallower Than Q3-08's -3.8% and Q4-08's -4.3% |
| 02-MAR-09 | Central Banks Will Soon Confront Build Up of Risks Stemming from Asset-Price Deflation |
| 02-MAR-09 | Deterioration of Global Economic Activity May Be Ebbing |
| 27-FEB-09 | Consensus Expects a Declining Trend For Both Baa Bond Yield and Its Spread |
| 27-FEB-09 | Record Contraction for Consumer Nondurable Goods … Past Offers Hope Following Deep Drop by Outlays on Consumer Durables |
| 26-FEB-09 | Fiscal Jolt Is Not Enough … Fed Needs to Drive Mortgage Yields Sharply Lower |
| 26-FEB-09 | Core Durable Goods Orders Correlate Well With Turning Points for Yield Spreads and the Business Cycle |
| 26-FEB-09 | Soaring Jobless Claims Highlight Difficulty of Stabilizing New Home Sales |
| 25-FEB-09 | Surge in Downgrades, Including Fallen Angels, Helps to Re-Widen High Yield Bond Spreads |
| 25-FEB-09 | US Government's "Worst Case" Scenarios for Real GDP and Jobless Rate Are More Severe than Blue Chip's Bleakest Outlooks |
| 25-FEB-09 | Housing Cries Out For Substantially Lower Mortgage Yields |
| 24-FEB-09 | Consumers Expect Lower Incomes, On Balance … Consumer Sentiment and Creditor Risk Aversion Are Inversely Correlated |
| 24-FEB-09 | Home Price Indices of Case-Shiller and FHFA Diverged in December |
| 24-FEB-09 | Fed Chief's Testimony Effectively Downplays Role of "Quantitative Easing" |
| 23-FEB-09 | Caa's Share of "Viable" High-Yield Bonds Outstanding Reaches Record 30% |
| 23-FEB-09 | Fed Chief May Aim To Steady Fast Sinking Equity Market |
| 20-FEB-09 | Absent Lower Mortgage Yields, Existing Home Sales May Slump After Possibly Posting Biggest 2-Month Gain Since 2004 |
| 20-FEB-09 | Core Inflation to Ease Despite Gold's Price Surge |
| 19-FEB-09 | Jan-09's Jump by the PPI Was a Fluke … State Jobless Data and Philly Fed Index Reveal Loss of Pricing Power |
| 18-FEB-09 | 4.5% Mortgage Yield Would Aid Obama's Mortgage Modification Strategy |
| 18-FEB-09 | Quantitative Easing Would Enhance Private Credit Markets … Deflation Supplants Core Import Price Inflation |
| 18-FEB-09 | Possible Q3-08 Trough for Capacity Utilization Would Imply Likewise for Business and Credit Cycles |
| 17-FEB-09 | Feb-08's Indices from NY Fed and NAHB Underscore Need for Lower Borrowing Costs |
| 17-FEB-09 | China's Demand for US Treasuries Remains Ample … Renewed Softening of Base Metals Prices Warns of Wider Emerging Market Bond Spreads |
| 13-FEB-09 | Price Deflation Diminishes Access to Financial Capital and Imperils Debt Repayment |
| 13-FEB-09 | Lower Private-Sector Borrowing Costs Seem Likely By Year's End |
| 12-FEB-09 | Weakening Labor Market Mars Outlook for Retail Sales |
| 11-FEB-09 | Plunge by Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Underscores Imperative of Substantially Lower Borrowing Costs |
| 11-FEB-09 | Double-Digit Percentage Declines by Trade, Output and Orders Highlight Severity of Current Global Slump |
| 10-FEB-09 | Core CPI Inflation Matters More to Bond Yields than Does the Federal Budget Gap |
| 10-FEB-09 | Top-Line Revenues Set New Lows in Q4-08 |
| 09-FEB-09 | High-Yield Bond Spread Can Peak before the Default Rate Crests |
| 09-FEB-09 | Weak Economy and Fed Intervention Should Reverse Recent Climb by Private-Sector Yields |
| 06-FEB-09 | Narrower Corporate Bond Yield Spreads Are Key to an Economic Recovery |
| 06-FEB-09 | Rising Unemployment Menaces Both Consumer Spending and Consumer Credit |
| 05-FEB-09 | High-Yield Bonds Extend Rally … Unit Labor Costs Improve Outlook for Operating Leverage |
| 05-FEB-09 | Ratio of Jobless Benefit Recipients to Pool of Eligible Workers Predicts an Unemployment Rate of 8% |
| 05-FEB-09 | Retail Sales Sank for 7th Straight Month in Jan-09 … Orders for Defense Goods and Electromedical Equipment Rise amid Recession |
| 04-FEB-09 | Drop in Risk Aversion Lifts Treasury Yields … Base Metal Prices Steady |
| 04-FEB-09 | January's Drop by Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Shows Need For a 4.5% Mortgage Yield |
| 04-FEB-09 | High-Yield Bond Spread Reveals a Strong Correlation with the ISM Composite |
| 04-FEB-09 | High Yield Bonds Generally Prospered When Payrolls Shrank by More than a Million from Nov-01 through Aug-03 |
| 03-FEB-09 | January's Ample Return from High Yield Bonds Differed Radically from Wretched Showing By Stocks ... Bond Yields Must Fall |
| 03-FEB-09 | Quantitative Easing Could Give Effect to Dec-08's Record High Home Affordability Index |
| 03-FEB-09 | Tight Consumer Credit and Job Worries Sink US Auto Sales |
| 02-FEB-09 | Net Percentage of Surveyed Banks Tightening Mortgage Loans Dips to Still Very Restrictive Levels |
| 02-FEB-09 | ISM's Q4-08 Collapse Dovetailed With Record Wide High-Yield Bond Spread |
| 02-FEB-09 | Breakdown of ABS Securitization and Tighter Lending Standards Help Prevent Consumer Spending From Keeping Pace with Incomes |
| 02-FEB-09 | Rising Joblessness and Tight CRE Loan Standards May Soon Slash CRE Construction |
| 02-FEB-09 | Index of the Tightness of Bank Business Credit Dips from Record High |
| 02-FEB-09 | January's Top Decile Total Return from High Yield Bonds Differs Radically from Bottom Decile Plunge in Market Value of Common Stock |
| 30-JAN-09 | Weight of Real GDP's Contraction on Credit Should Ease After Q2-09 |
| 30-JAN-09 | Consumer Spending's Decline Can Moderate … A Revival of ABS Issuance is Critical |
| 30-JAN-09 | Record Numbers of Downgrades and Defaults Are Consistent With Capital Spending's Contraction |
| 29-JAN-09 | Dip in Credit Risk Aversion Helps to Lift Treasury Bond Yields |
| 29-JAN-09 | New Home Sales' Record Low Underscores Need for Much Lower Mortgage Yields |
| 29-JAN-09 | Deepest Global Slump since Perhaps WWII to Deepen Slide of New Orders |
| 29-JAN-09 | Monthly Loss of Jobs May Deepen in February after Narrowing in December and January |
| 28-JAN-09 | Average Investment-Grade Coupon Rises for First Time during a Recession Since 1982 |
| 28-JAN-09 | Fed Policy Effectively Intends to Reward Those Who Assume Credit Risk |
| 27-JAN-09 | Consumer Confidence Survey Hints of Most Deflationary US Recession Since WWII |
| 27-JAN-09 | Home Price Deflation Underscores Imperative of Forcing Fixed-Rate Borrowing Costs Lower |
| 26-JAN-09 | Lowest "Home Price to Income" Ratio since 1970 … New Record Gap Between Renters' Rent Inflation and Home Price Deflation |
| 26-JAN-09 | Yield Spreads Show Stronger Correlation with ECRI Index than With Either LEI or Real GDP |
| 23-JAN-09 | Imploding Sales and Diminished Access to Capital Skewed Q4-08's Credit Rating Revisions to the Downside |
| 23-JAN-09 | Jan-09's High Yield Bond Supply Tops Q4-08 Total … High Yield Offering Spreads Trail Average of Outstanding Bonds |
| 23-JAN-09 | Might Quantitative Easing Reverse Recent Climb by Borrowing Costs? |
| 22-JAN-09 | ECRI Index Says Current Slump Is Worst Recession Since the Great Depression |
| 22-JAN-09 | Drop in Nonfederal Net Borrowing Will Accommodate Mammoth US Government Budget Gap |
| 22-JAN-09 | Q4-08's 69% Annualized Plunge by Starts from Q3-08 Reinforces Call for a 7% Plunge by Real GDP |
| 21-JAN-09 | Architectural Billings Index Warns Of Especially Harsh Times for Commercial Real Estate Construction |
| 21-JAN-09 | NAHB Index Suggests Housing's Plight Is Worsening Despite Exceptionally Low Mortgage Yields |
| 21-JAN-09 | Contraction of Corporate Income Tax Receipts Approaches Plunge of 2001 Recession |
| 20-JAN-09 | Worrisome Outlook for Jobs Preserves Possible Climb by Office Vacancy Rate to Highs of 1991-1992 |
| 20-JAN-09 | Performance of Corporate Bonds Diverges from Slumping Equities |
| 16-JAN-09 | Very Low Utilization Rates Reflect Much Lower Than Expected Sales Volumes |
| 16-JAN-09 | Declining Capacity Utilization Warns of More Problems With Corporate Debt Repayment |
| 16-JAN-09 | July-December 2008 Saw Record Slowing of CPI Inflation |
| 16-JAN-09 | Housing, Motor Vehicles, Casinos and Media/TV/Radio Led Q4-08's Record Count of High-Yield Downgrades |
| 15-JAN-09 | FHLMC's 30-Year Mortgage Yield To Move Lower, Yet Declining Trends for Both HY / HG Bond Yields Would Abet Any Escape From Recession |
| 15-JAN-09 | Federal Reserve Survey Reveals Janaury's Easing in Deterioration of Manufacturing - Projects Further Economic Hardships |
| 15-JAN-09 | December's Peak in State Unemployment Claims Foreworns of Potential Decline in January - Still No Solution In Sight |
| 15-JAN-09 | Precipitous Plunge of the Annual Rate of PPI Inflation Testifies to the Global Scope of the Current Economic Slump |
| 14-JAN-09 | Ratio of Retail Sales to Income Sinks to Record Low … Q4-08's Real GDP Probably Plunged by 7% Annualized |
| 14-JAN-09 | Applications for Mortgage Refis Skyrocket, but Homebuyer Mortgage "Apps" Add to Worry |
| 14-JAN-09 | Rapid Slide by Core Business Sales Bodes Poorly For Profits |
| 13-JAN-09 | Fed Stokes Growth of Commercial Paper as Prime CP Rates Approach 0% |
| 13-JAN-09 | Shrinking Exports Will Deepen Profits' Plunge |
| 12-JAN-09 | Bonds Rated "Caa3 or Less" Comprise Record 19% of Dollar Amount of High-Yield Bonds Outstanding |
| 12-JAN-09 | Renewed Climb by VIX Could Halt a Widely Distributed Narrowing of Corporate Bond Yield Spreads |
| 09-JAN-09 | Jobless Claims May Offer Insight Regarding a Possible Moderation of Job Losses |
| 09-JAN-09 | Unprecedented Plunge by Private-Sector Service Jobs Crimps High-End Spending |
| 09-JAN-09 | Severe Credit Crunch Explains Why Spreads of Current Recession are Wider than those of 1981-1982 Slump |
| 08-JAN-09 | Consumer Credit Dips as Credit Card Charge-Off Rate Trends Higher … Mortgage Refi Surge May Boost Home Equity Loans |
| 08-JAN-09 | Fewer Jobless Claims Preserve the Possibility of Fewer Job Losses for January 2009 |
| 08-JAN-09 | Price Deflation Skewed Same Store Sales Lower … December's Retail Sales Probably Fell by 1.2% Monthly |
| 07-JAN-09 | Despite Recent Rally, High-Yield Spread Is Nearly 1,000 Basis Points Wider Than Jan-08 Mark … Q4-08's Count of High Yield Downgrades Sets Record |
| 07-JAN-09 | January's Homebuyer Mortgage Applications May Need to Grow by 10% Monthly If Housing's Outlook is to Firm |
| 07-JAN-09 | Vis-a-vis GDP, CBO Projects 2008's Budget Gap Will Be Widest Since 1946 and Wider than any Year of Depression |
| 07-JAN-09 | ADP Warns of a Loss of as Many as 650,000 Jobs for December |
| 06-JAN-09 | ISM Composite Shows Moderation of Recession |
| 06-JAN-09 | Orders Will Continue to Sink |
| 06-JAN-09 | Pending Home Sales May Mimic December's Gain by Mortgage Applications |
| 05-JAN-09 | December's Unit Auto Sales Plunge by -35.5% Yearly, but Edge Up by 1.0% Monthly |
| 05-JAN-09 | November's Construction Spending Tops Views as Private-Nonresidential Construction Sets New Record High |
| 24-DEC-08 | Ongoing Surge by Mortgage Applications Hints of Mid-2009 End to Current Recession |
| 24-DEC-08 | November's Core Orders Grew Unexpectedly |
| 24-DEC-08 | Nov-08's Jump by Real Consumer Spending Narrows Q4-08's Expected Contraction of Real GDP … Soaring Savings Improves 2009's Outlook |
| 23-DEC-08 | The Quiet Recovery of Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Continues |
| 23-DEC-08 | Home Prices Sink Vis-à-vis Income … New Home Sales Drop to Record Low Relative to Labor Force |
| 23-DEC-08 | In California and Florida, Existing Home Sales Soared Annually as Home Prices Plummeted |
| 22-DEC-08 | Declining Corporate Bond Yields Are the "Sine Qua Non" of Economic Stabilization |
| 19-DEC-08 | December-to-date Shows 5.8% Return from Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds That Exceeds 0.2% Dip in Market Value of Common Stock |
| 19-DEC-08 | Variable-Rate Borrowing Costs Plunge … Some Prime CP Rates Approach 0% |
| 19-DEC-08 | Lower Borrowing Costs May Lead The To Economic Stabilization |
| 18-DEC-08 | ECRI Index Disputes LEI's Implied View That Corporate Bonds Are Underpriced |
| 18-DEC-08 | Consumers Cheer Both Lowest Mortgage Yield in More Than 35 Years and Cheapest Crude Since Feb-04 |
| 18-DEC-08 | Extraordinarily Cautious Businesses Slash Planned Cap Ex |
| 17-DEC-08 | Investment-Grade Yields Drop in Response to Fed's Mega-Stimulus Package, While Commodity Prices Sink |
| 17-DEC-08 | Recent Ba-Grade Yield Gap of 1,414 basis points Tops Widest Overall High-Yield Spread of Previous Two Slumps |
| 17-DEC-08 | Plunge By Mortgage Yields Prompts Surge in Mortgage Refi Applications |
| 16-DEC-08 | Fed's Actions May Extend Ongoing Slide by Corporate Bond Yields and Set a Top for High-Yield Bond Average |
| 16-DEC-08 | 5% Mortgage Yield and Relentless Climb by Rents May Help Steady Home Sales |
| 16-DEC-08 | Mid-2008's Overblown and Damaging Fear of Price Inflation Underscores Why Core Inflation Trumps Headline Inflation |
| 15-DEC-08 | Capacity Utilization May Not Bottom Until Q3-09 Which Harms Outlooks for Profits and Cap Ex |
| 15-DEC-08 | Latest News from China and US Warns of Jarring Slump by Global Production |
| 12-DEC-08 | Consumers' View of Current Conditions Posts Record Percentage Jump as of Early December |
| 12-DEC-08 | Core Retail Sales Grow by 0.3% Monthly in November |
| 11-DEC-08 | Q4-08's Real Net Worth per Worker May Sink to a 5-year Low |
| 11-DEC-08 | Early December's Jobless Claims Warn of Monthly Job Losses Deeper than Nov-08's Plunge of 533K |
| 11-DEC-08 | Deepest 3-Month Slide by Exports on Record Prompts Downward Revision of Q4-08 Real GDP Forecast |
| 10-DEC-08 | December's Decline by Medium-Grade Industrial Bond Yields Has Been Shallower Than the Plunge by Treasury Yields |
| 10-DEC-08 | CFO Survey Reveals Bleak Prospects for 2009's Capital Spending, Employment, Ad Spending and Profits |
| 10-DEC-08 | Core Business Sales Incur Deepest Setback Since September 2001 |
| 10-DEC-08 | Survey Claims Lack of Access to Consumer Credit Plays Very Minor Role at Explaining Cutbacks in Holiday Spending |
| 10-DEC-08 | Pessimists Sense Recession Will End by September 2009 |
| 09-DEC-08 | Baa Industrial Company Bond Yield Shows Steepest Year-to-Year Increase Since 1981 |
| 09-DEC-08 | Pending Home Sales Bottomed in Mar-08 and Hint of a Trough for Home Sales |
| 08-DEC-08 | Corporate Credit Disputes Recent Advances by Equities |
| 05-DEC-08 | Consumer Spending Still Grew Amid Consumer Credit's Contraction of 1990-1992 |
| 05-DEC-08 | Mortgage Foreclosure Rate May Peak Before the Jobless Rate Does |
| 05-DEC-08 | An Expected Q3-09 Narrowing of Jobless Rate's Annual Climb May Prompt Notable Thinning of Credit Spreads |
| 05-DEC-08 | Hours of Work Warn of Deepest Quarterly Contraction of Real GDP since Q1-82 |
| 04-DEC-08 | Wide Bond Yield Spreads Menace Equities, but Investment-Grade Bond Yields Have Eased |
| 04-DEC-08 | CEOs' Views of the Economy, Sales Growth, Cap Ex and Jobs Sink to Record Lows |
| 04-DEC-08 | Weaker Autos and Deep Plunge by Gas Station Sales Will Skew Nov-08's Retail Sales Lower |
| 04-DEC-08 | Relative to the Labor Force, Nov-08's Jobless Claims and Unemployment Benefit Recipients Fell Way Short of 1982's Ratios |
| 03-DEC-08 | Mortgage Applications Jumped During the Final Week of November |
| 03-DEC-08 | Record Low ISM Composite Warns of Weak Profits |
| 03-DEC-08 | Deceleration of Nonfinancial-Corporate Unit Labor Costs Lends Support to Profit Margins |
| 03-DEC-08 | Lower Outlays on Energy and Interest Expense may Limit the Severity of Consumer Spending's Slide |
| 03-DEC-08 | Labor Market Indicators Imply Payrolls Shrank by 338,ooo Jobs in November |
| 02-DEC-08 | November's Auto Sales Were Lowest Since Oct-82 and Favor a Sixth Straight Monthly Drop by Real Consumer Spending |
| 02-DEC-08 | Recent High Yield Bond Spread Implies an Expected Default Rate of Nearly 21% |
| 02-DEC-08 | US' Jobless Rate May Post Steepest Annual Jump Since July 1982 |
| 02-DEC-08 | Home Affordability Index Posts Steepest Reading Since June 1973 |
| 01-DEC-08 | Unduly Wide Spreads Help Slash Market Value of US Common Stock to 53% of GDP |
| 01-DEC-08 | Cheaper Energy, Lower Benchmark Interest Rates and Quantitative Easing May Yet Enliven Expenditures |
| 01-DEC-08 | Global Economic Slump and Earlier Surge Prompt Record Deep Plunge by Base Metals Prices |
| 01-DEC-08 | Plunge by 10-year Treasury Yield Might Yet Help to Steady Residential Construction |
| 01-DEC-08 | Plunge by 10-year Treasury Yield Might Yet Help to Steady Residential Construction |
| 01-DEC-08 | ISM Index Sinks to 1982 Low … Credit Crunch Crushes Export Orders |
| 26-NOV-08 | Homebuyer Mortgage Applications and New Home Sales Both Plunged in October |
| 26-NOV-08 | October's Durable Goods Orders and November's Chicago PMI Underscore Need For Quick End to Credit Crisis |
| 26-NOV-08 | Personal Savings Swell as Income Outruns Spending By Wide Margin |
| 26-NOV-08 | November 2008's Monthly Jump by Jobless Claims Should Rival the 11% of September 2001 |
| 25-NOV-08 | Profit Margin Ratio Question Rationale behind Ultra-Wide Yield Spreads |
| 25-NOV-08 | Home Price Deflation Supports Need for Fed Buying of Mortgages |
| 25-NOV-08 | Jittery Consumers Reveal Extraordinarily Low Spending Plans for Autos and Housing |
| 24-NOV-08 | Oct-08's Home Price to Income Ratio Is the Lowest Since Dec-73 |
| 24-NOV-08 | Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index Has Yet to Confirm an Especially Severe Recession |
| 24-NOV-08 | Retail Price of Gasoline Breaks Under $2 per Gallon |
| 21-NOV-08 | Interbank Loans Contract as Nonfederal Assets of Banks Grow More Slowly |
| 21-NOV-08 | Bankers Sense That The Worst is Yet to Come For Bank Loan Delinquency Rates |
| 20-NOV-08 | Groping For a Bottom ... Bank C&I Loan Delinquency Rate Barely Rises |
| 19-NOV-08 | Ultra-Wide Corporate Credit Risk Premia Help to Slash Equity Prices |
| 18-NOV-08 | Interbank Loans Contract, but Bank-Held C&I, Consumer and Home Equity Loans Still Grow Briskly |
| 18-NOV-08 | US Government Is Likely to Offset Private-Sector Deleveraging |
| 18-NOV-08 | Commodity Price Deflation Slashes PPI |
| 17-NOV-08 | Corporate Bond Market Turmoil Stokes Equity Market Volatility |
| 17-NOV-08 | Stronger Dollar, Slower World Economy and Fewer Exports Will Pare US Profits |
| 17-NOV-08 | Profit Margin Ratio May Not Trough until Capacity Utilization Bottoms in Q3-09 |
| 12-NOV-08 | Wide Spreads Can Overstate Approaching Economic Distress |
| 11-NOV-08 | GDP Can Outrun Debt … CRE Loan Standards Anticipate a Jump in Debt Repayment Woes |
| 11-NOV-08 | Still Elevated VIX Helps To Block Meaningful Thinning of High-Yield Bond Spread |
| 11-NOV-08 | Lower Energy Prices Boost Consumers' Purchasing Power |
| 10-NOV-08 | LIBOR's Plunge Has Yet to Slash Bond Spreads by Enough to Steady the Economy and Equities |
| 10-NOV-08 | US Economy Improved Despite Early-1990s Slowing of Debt Vis-à-vis GDP … Washington May Offset Slower Private- Sector Debt |
| 07-NOV-08 | Slumping Job Market Will Impair Debt Repayment |
| 07-NOV-08 | Latest Slowing of Core Business Sales Compares Favorably With Contraction of 2001's Recession |
| 07-NOV-08 | Consumer Credit & Bank-Help Private-Sector Debt Grow |
| 07-NOV-08 | Base Metals Prices and Global PMI Complement IMF's Downwardly Revised Forecast of World Economic Growth |
| 07-NOV-08 | Labor Market Slack Will Reverse Recent Quickening of Unit Labor Costs |
| 07-NOV-08 | October Likely Experienced a 2.5% Drop by Retail Sales and a 0.5% Dip by CPI |
| 07-NOV-08 | Jobless Claims Still Compare Favorably to Recessions of 1990-1991 and 1981-1982 |
| 05-NOV-08 | Brisk Growth of Bank C&I Loans Masks a Deep Plunge by Newly-Rated Bank Loan Programs |
| 05-NOV-08 | ISM-Derived Composite Warns of Much Diminished Profitability |
| 05-NOV-08 | October's Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Incurred Record Setbacks … Housing's Poor Outlook Worsens |
| 05-NOV-08 | Jobs Data Still Compares Favorably With 2001's Mild Recession |
| 04-NOV-08 | Drop in VIX Might Lead a Narrowing of Corporate Bond Yield Spreads |
| 04-NOV-08 | After a Weak September, Orders and Shipments of US Manufacturers Are Likely to Worsen |
| 03-NOV-08 | Tighter Bank Lending Standards Support Wider Bond Spreads and Warn of Weaker Economy |
| 03-NOV-08 | October Recorded the Fewest Seasonally-Adjusted Auto Sales since February 1983 |
| 31-OCT-08 | Recent Data Dispute Bond Spreads' Notion of a Very Nasty Recession |
| 31-OCT-08 | Household Interest Expense Shrinks … Smallest Annual Rise by Consumer Spending ex Food and Energy Since 1961 |
| 31-OCT-08 | Consumer Spending Grew Faster Prior to Rebates … Savings Soar … Payrolls and Real Employment Income Still Outshine Previous Slumps |
| 30-OCT-08 | Short-Dated Libor Plunges, but Bond Spreads Are Still Far Too Wide |
| 30-OCT-08 | Recent Data Dispute Bond Spreads' View That This Is the Worst Recession since the Great Depression |
| 29-OCT-08 | Fed Funds Rate Cut Helps to Improve Economic Outlook by Steepening the Treasury Yield Curve |
| 29-OCT-08 | Core Orders Compare Favorably With 2001's Recession, Still Cap Ex Should Shrink |
| 29-OCT-08 | Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Warn of Renewed Weakness for Home Sales |
| 28-OCT-08 | Diminished Expectations Drive Consumer Confidence to a Record Low |
| 28-OCT-08 | Consumer Spending Outran Household Debt 27% of the Time since 1964 |
| 28-OCT-08 | Annual Contraction of Case-Shiller's 20 Region Home Price Index May Narrow Soon |
| 27-OCT-08 | October May Show Record Monthly Drop by Gasoline Prices … Q4-08's Yearly Plunge by Base Metals Prices May Be Unrivaled |
| 27-OCT-08 | Bank Loans to Private Sector Grow Excluding Residential Real Estate Loans Ex Home Equity |
| 27-OCT-08 | Fast Sinking Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Warn of Fewer Home after September's Brief Spurt |
| 24-OCT-08 | Housing Was Forming a Major Bottom Prior to Lehman's Collapse |
| 24-OCT-08 | Margin Calls Deflate Prices of Stocks and Corporate Bonds |
| 24-OCT-08 | Q3-08's Real GDP Probably Incurred a 1.3% Annualized Quarterly Contraction |
| 23-OCT-08 | Margin Calls Widen Credit Risk Premia and Worsen Economic Outlook |
| 23-OCT-08 | Tight Mortgage Criteria amid Deeper Economic Slump Underscore Need for Sub-3.5% 10-Year Treasury Yield |
| 23-OCT-08 | Jobless Claims Have Yet To Support Forecasts of a Severe Recession |
| 22-OCT-08 | Energy Price Plunge Trims Consumer Spending's Downside Risk, but Price Deflation Risks May Soon Stir Worry |
| 22-OCT-08 | Worst Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Index since 2001 Underscores Need for More Mortgage Credit at Low Rates |
| 22-OCT-08 | Architectural Billings Index Warns of Nonresidential Construction's Impending Bust |
| 21-OCT-08 | US Government Might Do More to Thin Excessively Wide Credit Risk Premia |
| 21-OCT-08 | Rising Unemployment Rate is Likely to Lift Credit Card Charge-Off Rate to New Record High by Q4-09 |
| 21-OCT-08 | Price Deflation Risks May Soon Outweigh Price Inflation Risks As World Economy Slows |
| 21-OCT-08 | Chicago Fed's National Activity Index Sinks to Worst Reading since January 1982 and Supports Very Wide Spreads |
| 20-OCT-08 | Few Signs of Thawing in the Corporate, State & Local Government, and Emerging Market Country Bond Markets |
| 20-OCT-08 | ECRI Predicts Deeper Recession than Does LEI … Southern California's Home Sales Surged in September |
| 20-OCT-08 | Annual Increase of China's Real GDP Slows Noticeably |
| 17-OCT-08 | Ultra-Wide Spreads Will Keep Equities in a Bear Market |
| 17-OCT-08 | Woeful Housing Starts Prompt Cut of Q3-08's Real GDP Estimate as Confidence's Plunge Bodes Poorly for Q4-08 |
| 16-OCT-08 | Hurricanes and Labor Strife Slashed September's Industrial Output |
| 16-OCT-08 | Jobless Claims May Drop from September to October … CPI Inflation Risks Plunge |
| 15-OCT-08 | Treasury Bond Yields Temporarily Rose During Previous Recessions |
| 15-OCT-08 | Recent Narrowing of Corporate Credit Risk Premia is far From Sufficient |
| 15-OCT-08 | Wretched Economic Data Drive Home Need for Lower Interest Rates |
| 14-OCT-08 | Bank Holdings of Private-Sector Loans Accelerate Post September 10th |
| 14-OCT-08 | Treasury Bond Yields Did Not Bottom Until Well After the Recessions of 2001 and 1990-1991 |
| 13-OCT-08 | Blue Chip Survey's Pessimists Says Corporate Bond Market is Unduly Glum |
| 13-OCT-08 | High Yield Bond Spread Implies Default Rate Will Top 1933's Record 15.4% |
| 10-OCT-08 | VIX at 70 Follows From Crippling Uncertainties |
| 10-OCT-08 | Exports Extraordinary Support to US Growth Should Soon Fade |
| 09-OCT-08 | Jobless Claims and Core Business Sales Underscore Need for 1% Fed Funds Rate … Inflation Expectations Plunge |
| 09-OCT-08 | Financial Market Turmoil may Now Reverse Recent Progress at Steadying Home Sales |
| 09-OCT-08 | Market Value of US Common Equity Plunges by $3.6 Trillion since Lehman's Collapse |
| 09-OCT-08 | September's Retail Sales Should Shrink for Third Straight Month … Gasoline may Sink to under $3 per Gallon |
| 09-OCT-08 | Record Wide Yield Spread Anticipates New Zenith for Default Rate and New Nadir for Profit Margin Ratio |
| 08-OCT-08 | Record Wide High-Yield Bond Spread Anticipates New Zenith for Default Rate and New Nadir for Profit Margin Ratio |
| 08-OCT-08 | Santa Claus Just Might Show Up This Holiday Season, At the Gas Pump That Is … Same Store Sales Struggle |
| 08-OCT-08 | Financial Markets Want a 1% Fed Funds Rate |
| 08-OCT-08 | Pending Home Sales Show Housing Was Improving Prior to Lehman's Collapse |
| 07-OCT-08 | Consumer Credit Generally Shrank During and After 1990-1991 Recession |
| 07-OCT-08 | Record High VIX is Joined by Record Wide High Yield Bond Spreads |
| 06-OCT-08 | CP Outstanding, New Bank Loan Programs and SBA Loans All Shrink, but Bank Credit to the Private-Sector Grows |
| 06-OCT-08 | Troubling Outlooks for Economy, Profits and Defaults May Preserve Record Wide Spreads of High-Yield Bonds |
| 06-OCT-08 | Stock Prices Will Not Stabilize Until Ultra-Wide Yield Spreads Narrow |
| 03-OCT-08 | Loss of Jobs and Slower Income Growth Warn of Subpar Consumer Spending |
| 03-OCT-08 | Record Shows That Fed Funds and Treasury Yields Will Move Lower After Recession's End |
| 03-OCT-08 | Mortgage Rescue Won't Bring in Spreads Substantially |
| 02-OCT-08 | Jobless Claims and Auto Sales Imply the Recession Deepens ... Where's the Rate Cut? |
| 02-OCT-08 | Orders Warn Of Slowdown for Capital Equipment Spending … Deceleration of Tech Progress Curbs Economic Growth |
| 02-OCT-08 | Ongoing Contraction of CP Is Most Severe for Financial Companies and ABS Programs |
| 01-OCT-08 | Super Wide Credit Spreads and Fast Sinking Economy Bring a 1% Fed Funds Rate into View |
| 01-OCT-08 | High Yield Bonds Break $1 Trillion Mark as Share of "Higher-Risk" High Yield Bonds Sets Record |
| 01-OCT-08 | Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Plunge by 20% Following Lehman's Demise |
| 01-OCT-08 | ISM's Factory Index Puts US in Recession and Bolsters Case for Lower Interest Rates |
| 01-OCT-08 | Both Commercial Construction and Residential Investment Will Slow Real GDP in Q3-08 |
| 30-SEP-08 | Consumer Confidence Surveys Hint of a Bottom for Economic Activity |
| 30-SEP-08 | No Hint of an Impending Bottom for Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 30-SEP-08 | High-Yield Bond Spread Tops 1,000 Basis Points For First Time Since Nov-02 |
| 30-SEP-08 | Unlike US and Japan, Declining Trend of German Unemployment Persists |
| 29-SEP-08 | Financial Market Turmoil Will Weaken an Already Sickly Real Economy … Rate Cuts May Substitute For Lack of Mortgage Rescue Package |
| 29-SEP-08 | Consumer Spending Will Help to Slash Real GDP's Annualized Quarterly Rise from Q2-08's 2.8% to 0.2% for Q3-08 |
| 26-SEP-08 | Growth of Bank C&I Loans Partly Compensates for Shrinkage of CP |
| 26-SEP-08 | Thus Far, Profits and Revenues Fare Better Compared to 2001 Recession |
| 26-SEP-08 | Commercial Real Estate Construction May Have Had Its "Last Hurrah" for the Current Cycle |
| 26-SEP-08 | Domestic Spending Lags Pace of 2001 Recession … Shrinkage of Private-Sector Debt Does Not Assure the Same for GDP |
| 25-SEP-08 | Equity and Corporate Credit Markets Shrug Off a Spate of Weaker-Than-Expected Readings on US Economic Activity |
| 24-SEP-08 | US Cannot Afford a Deepening of Housing's Recession |
| 23-SEP-08 | Record Foreign Ownership of US Treasuries May Limit Effectiveness of Fed Policy |
| 23-SEP-08 | Real Consumer Spending Will Slow Until the Annual Contraction of Real Household Net Worth Narrows |
| 22-SEP-08 | Coordinated Rate Cuts Would Help to Control Contraction of Bank Credit and Promote Stabilization of Housing |
| 22-SEP-08 | RTC Bailout Approximated 6.7% of GDP Which Approaches $922 billion in Today's Economy |
| 22-SEP-08 | Stock Price Volatility Climbs Up to Heights of Sep-02 and Sep-98 |
| 12-SEP-08 | August's High Yield Bond Issuance Was Lowest since November 1990 |
| 12-SEP-08 | Consumer Sentiment Posts Steepest Monthly Jump since November 1992 |
| 12-SEP-08 | Weak Retail Sales May Yet Get Help from Cheaper Energy and Lower Interest Rates |
| 12-SEP-08 | Lower Energy Prices Supply Room for Fed Rate Cuts |
| 11-SEP-08 | Corporate Income Tax Data Hint of Milder Contraction for Profits |
| 11-SEP-08 | Unlike GDP, Jobless Claims Put the US in a Recession |
| 11-SEP-08 | Still Cheap Dollar Exchange Rate Will Enliven Exports by Enough to Ward Off a Contraction of US Real GDP |
| 11-SEP-08 | Mortgage Yields Should Drop Amid a Global Slowing of Price Inflation |
| 10-SEP-08 | Steadying of Credit-Sensitive Housing Requires Lower Benchmark Interest Rates |
| 10-SEP-08 | Core Business Sales Growth Quickened from June to July |
| 10-SEP-08 | CFOs' View of Profitability Improves, While Their Outlooks for Jobs, Wages and Cap Ex Worsen |
| 10-SEP-08 | Lower Mortgage Yields Lead Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Higher for a Third Straight Week |
| 08-SEP-08 | US Government's Backing of FNMA and FHLMC Could Thin Now Wide Yield Gap between Mortgages and Treasuries Substantially |
| 08-SEP-08 | CDX and High-Yield Bond Spreads May Ease Somewhat for Now |
| 08-SEP-08 | Jobless Rate is a Lagging Indicator, Other Labor Market Metrics Better Describe the Business Cycle |
| 08-SEP-08 | Despite Crunch, Consumer Credit and Bank-Owned Home Equity Loans Still Expand |
| 05-SEP-08 | August's Steep Jobless Rate Was Slightly Boosted by Surge in Job Quitters |
| 05-SEP-08 | Weak Jobs Report and Rising Mortgage Payment Problems Underscore Need for Lower Interest Rates |
| 05-SEP-08 | August's Hours of Work Outside of Manufacturing Jump by 0.3% from July |
| 05-SEP-08 | Autos Get Disproportionate Blame for August's Weak Jobs Report |
| 04-SEP-08 | SM Economic Activity Composite and Deceleration of Unit Labor Costs Were at Odds With Stock Market's Latest 3% Daily Plunge |
| 04-SEP-08 | August's Retail Sales Probably Were Unchanged from July |
| 04-SEP-08 | August's Jobless Claims and ADP Results Warn of a Deepening of the Monthly Contraction of Payrolls |
| 03-SEP-08 | Lower Mortgage Yields Could Lift Mortgage Applications Sequentially in September |
| 03-SEP-08 | Exports and Capital Spending Lend Buoyancy to US' Factory Orders |
| 03-SEP-08 | August's Jobless Claims warn of an Especially Deep Drop by Payrolls |
| 03-SEP-08 | US' Unit Sales of Light Motor Vehicles could incur Deepest Yearlong Drop Since 1980 |
| 02-SEP-08 | Real Outlays on the Construction of both Housing and Commercial Real Estate Should Shrink Sequentially in Q3-08 |
| 02-SEP-08 | Manufacturing's Favorable Comparisons with Earlier Recessions May Help to Contain Now Wide Bond Yield Spreads |
| 02-SEP-08 | Slower Inflation Lowers Benchmark Treasury Yields and Trims Consumer Spending's Downside Risks |
| 29-AUG-08 | Sluggish Income Will Curb Both Consumer Spending and Core PCE Price Index Inflation |
| 29-AUG-08 | Global Slowdown Has Been Mild Thus Far |
| 28-AUG-08 | If August's Payrolls Exceed Expectations, a Major Rally Should Ensue |
| 28-AUG-08 | Export Surge Prompts Steep Upward Revision of Q2-08's Real GDP |
| 27-AUG-08 | Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Index Incurs Record Year-to-Year Plunge |
| 27-AUG-08 | Exports and Earlier Moderation Help Durable Goods Orders Defy Credit Crunch |
| 26-AUG-08 | The Jobless Rate May Not Be Amenable To A Narrowing Of High-Yield Bond Spreads Until Q2-09 At The Earliest |
| 26-AUG-08 | Record Percentage of Surveyed Consumers Expect a Lower Income 6-Months Hence |
| 26-AUG-08 | Sales of New and Existing Homes Grow Sequentially Together For First Time Since Mar-05 … Case-Shiller's Monthly Home Price Deflation Eases for Fourth Straight Month |
| 25-AUG-08 | Record High Share of Lower-Rated High-Yield Bonds Outstanding Explains Today's Very Wide Average of High-Yield Bond Spread |
| 25-AUG-08 | Chicago Fed's NAI Reveals a Mild Recession That Could Intensify According to the ECRI Index |
| 25-AUG-08 | The West (or California) Skewed July's Median Sales Price of Existing Homes Sharply Lower |
| 15-AUG-08 | Unless VIX Climbs Higher Again, Corporate Credit Risk Should Narrow |
| 15-AUG-08 | Capacity Utilization's Shallower Dip Helps Nonfinancial Corporate Profits Withstand Current Recession |
| 14-AUG-08 | Initial State Jobless Claims Imply Recession is Here |
| 14-AUG-08 | Lower Commodity Prices and Rising Joblessness Will Slow CPI Inflation |
| 14-AUG-08 | US' Home Foreclosure Crisis Is Highly Concentrated by Region |
| 13-AUG-08 | Base Metals Price Index Sinks to Lowest Level since Oct-06 and Signals Possible Drop by Oil's Price to $75 per Barrel by Election Day |
| 13-AUG-08 | Commodity Price Inflation Worsens Housing's Plight by Helping to Drive Mortgage Yields Higher Year-to-Year … Weaker Economy May Drop 10-Year Treasury Yield into Range of 3.5%-3.75% |
| 13-AUG-08 | Oil Price Shock Trims July's Retail Sales as Housing-Related Sales Improve |
| 12-AUG-08 | Banking's Unfinished Difficulties Show Talk of a Fed Rate Hike to be Wildly Speculative |
| 12-AUG-08 | Corporate Income Tax Data Reveal Milder Slump By Profits Vis-à-vis 2001 |
| 12-AUG-08 | Dollar Firming Will Eventually Help to Slow US Exports |
| 12-AUG-08 | June Trade Results Favor Significant Upward Revision of Q2-08's Real GDP Growth |
| 11-AUG-08 | Restrictive C&I Loan Standards Support Wide Credit Risk Premia and Weaken Economic Outlook |
| 11-AUG-08 | Recent Tightening of CRE Loan Standards Anticipates Pronounced Climb by CRE Loan Repayment Problems |
| 11-AUG-08 | Latest Tightening of Mortgage Loan Standards to Drive Home Prices Lower |
| 11-AUG-08 | A TIPS Estimate of Expected CPI Inflation Lags Each Previous Monthly Average since October 2003 |
| 08-AUG-08 | Oil Under $100 Per Barrel Would Materially Lessen Economy's Downside Risk |
| 08-AUG-08 | Compared to 2001 Recession, Core Business Sales Hold Up Better Both Absolutely and Vis-à-vis Unit Labor Costs |
| 08-AUG-08 | Ebbing of Unit Labor Costs Sets the Stage for Financial Market Recovery |
| 07-AUG-08 | Credit Shrugged Off Recent Equity Advances … August 7's Stock Plunge Lifts Price of Crude Oil |
| 07-AUG-08 | Faint Hint of an Impending Bottom for Home Sales |
| 07-AUG-08 | Jobless Claims Turn Recessionary and Warn of Deeper Job Losses … Fed Rate Cut Now Seems More Likely Than Hike |
| 07-AUG-08 | For Now, Rebate Checks Add Much More to Savings than to Spending … Retail Sales ex Gas Station Sales Probably Sank for Second Straight Month in July |
| 06-AUG-08 | High Yield Credit Rating Revisions Argue Against Narrower Spreads … Q3-08's Downgrades to Caa3 or Lower May be the Most Since Q4-01 |
| 06-AUG-08 | Credit Risk Premia Barely Respond to Recent Equity Rally … July's Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Plunge |
| 06-AUG-08 | New Evidence of EU Slowdown Softens Euro … Some Indicators Defy Credit Crunch Implications |
| 05-AUG-08 | Oil Price Deflation Can Improve Prospects for Both Economy and Inflation … Financial Markets May Have Bottomed for Cycle |
| 05-AUG-08 | Headline CPI Could Drop Outright in August … Inflation Expectations Recede |
| 05-AUG-08 | Declining Base Metals Prices Hint of Oil at $80 per Barrel and an End to 2008's Rate Hikes |
| 04-AUG-08 | Corporate Credit Risk Premia Are More Sensitive to Changes in Labor Market Utilization than to Real Consumer Spending |
| 04-AUG-08 | Housing and Auto Recessions, Sluggish Technological Progress, and Robust Exports Shape US Manufacturing |
| 04-AUG-08 | Oil Price Shock Slashes July's Auto Sales and Hints of Q3-08 Dip by Real Consumer Spending Despite Fiscal Stimulus … Resilient Job Market Limits Spending's Downside |
| 04-AUG-08 | Declining Rates of Resource Utilization Imply Jawboning Will Substitute for Rate Hikes |
| 01-AUG-08 | US' Motor Vehicle Recession Intensified in July and Could Lead ISM Factory Index Lower |
| 01-AUG-08 | Meager Growth of Employment Income Bodes Poorly for Consumer Spending |
| 01-AUG-08 | Fewer Hours of Work and Mild Wage Growth Can Help to Contain Unit Labor Costs … Fed Rate Hike Is Unlikely |
| 01-AUG-08 | Profits' Shallower Decline Limits Job Losses for Now … Most of the Increases in Unemployment are Not from Job Losses |
| 31-JUL-08 | Rising Unemployment Will Curb Employment Costs and, Thereby, Ward Off a Rate Hike |
| 31-JUL-08 | Thinner Profit Margin Proxy Still Compares Favorably With Previous Recessions |
| 31-JUL-08 | Rebates Do Little to Stimulate Consumer Spending … Oil Price Shock Mars Second-Half Prospects |
| 30-JUL-08 | Lower VIX Signals Possible Narrowing of CDX Spreads |
| 30-JUL-08 | Real GDP Probably Gained Speed in Q2-08, But End of Rebates and Costly Fuel Menace H2-08's Outlook |
| 30-JUL-08 | Recent News From EU and Japan Signals Slower Growth Among Developed Economies Outside the US |
| 30-JUL-08 | Fewer Homebuyer Mortgage Applications and Diminished Home Affordability Imply Housing's Bottom Does Not lmpend |
| 30-JUL-08 | ADP May Have Overstated Payrolls Again in July |
| 29-JUL-08 | An Unchanged Base Metals Price Index Would Favor Crude Oil at $82 per Barrel |
| 29-JUL-08 | Consumers Remain Downbeat as They Fear Fewer Jobs, Lower Incomes, and Faster CPI Growth |
| 29-JUL-08 | The Price of Oil May Determine How Quickly Home Price Deflation Abates |
| 28-JUL-08 | Wide Credit Risk Premia Warn of a Retrenchment of Business Spending … Hours of Work have Yet to Incur a Recessionary Contraction |
| 28-JUL-08 | TIPS' Contract Looks for a Slowing of CPI Inflation That Would Help to Fulfill Need for Lower Treasury Bond Yields |
| 28-JUL-08 | Forecasts of a Near Stall for Q4-08's GDP Do Not Agree With Calls for an October 29th Rate Hike |
| 28-JUL-08 | US' Credit Card Charge-Off Rate Extended Its Climb in May |
| 25-JUL-08 | Oil Prices Will Have Much To Say Over What Becomes of Consumer Spending and Housing During 2008's Second Half |
| 25-JUL-08 | Oil Price Shock Imperils Core Capital Goods Orders That Have Withstood Credit Crunch Thus Far |
| 24-JUL-08 | Commodity Price Inflation and Credit Crunch Now Slow World Economy … US Exports Are at Risk … Rate Hikes are Out for Now |
| 24-JUL-08 | Oil's Supposed "Safe Haven" Status Imperils Financial Markets and the Economy |
| 24-JUL-08 | Absent the Oil Price Shock, Housing Would Be Much Closer to Stabilization |
| 23-JUL-08 | Jawboning Redux … Fed Funds Futures' Prediction of an October 29 Rate Hike Seems Absurd |
| 23-JUL-08 | Oil Price Slide Would Boost Effectiveness of Housing Rescue Package |
| 23-JUL-08 | Bank Bond Offerings Fade |
| 23-JUL-08 | Corporate Bond Issuance Wilts Thus Far in July |
| 22-JUL-08 | Oil Price Shock Is Likely To Intensify June's Rate of Home Price Deflation |
| 22-JUL-08 | ed May Hike Rates Only If Doing So Slashes Oil Prices |
| 22-JUL-08 | Corporate Bond Issuance Tends to Subside in the Second-Half |
| 21-JUL-08 | US Real Domestic Spending Is Likely to Lag World Real GDP Growth for a 10th Straight Year in 2009 … Worrisome Slowdown by M2 |
| 21-JUL-08 | Leading and Coincident Indices Complement Recession Notions |
| 21-JUL-08 | Chicago Fed's NAI Detects a Recession and Says a Fed Rate Cut is More Likely than a Hike |
| 18-JUL-08 | H1-08's High-Yield Upgrade Ratio Was the Lowest Since H2-02 |
| 18-JUL-08 | Financial Company Downgrades Steepen H1-08's Climb by US Corporate Credit Rating Reductions |
| 17-JUL-08 | Contraction of Housing Starts Moderates … Jobless Claims Have Yet to Warn of Deeper Job Losses |
| 15-JUL-08 | Except for Financials, Corporate Credit Risk Premia Still Fall Short of March 2008 Highs |
| 15-JUL-08 | Energy Stokes Steepest Annual Advance by PPI Since June 1981 |
| 15-JUL-08 | Slower Global Economic Growth Will Gnaw Away at Richly-Priced Commodities |
| 15-JUL-08 | Despite Fiscal Fillip, June's Retail Sales Disappoint |
| 10-JUL-08 | Mortgage Foreclosure Rate's Peak is Not Yet In Sight |
| 10-JUL-08 | Jobless Claims Have Yet to Warn of a Debilitating Slowdown by Consumer Spending |
| 10-JUL-08 | High Yield Bond Issuance Improves on its Q1-08 Pace |
| 09-JUL-08 | CDX Index Spreads Shrug Off July 9's Stock Price Plunge |
| 09-JUL-08 | Softening Economy and Shaky Financial Markets Might Soon Drive Oil Prices Sharply Lower |
| 09-JUL-08 | Oil Price Plunge Is Critical to Stabilization of Economy and Financial Markets … 10-Year Treasury Yield Sinks to Lowest Level Since May 20 |
| 08-JUL-08 | Seemingly Wide Credit Risk Premia Compensate For Troubling Outlook … Base Metals Favor Cheaper Oil |
| 08-JUL-08 | Consumer Credit Expands Materially Despite "Credit Crunch" |
| 08-JUL-08 | Growth of Core Business Sales Compares Favorably With 3 Years Ended Q3-03 |
| 08-JUL-08 | Index of Pending Home Sales Has Yet to Indicate a Solid Bottom for Home Sales |
| 07-JUL-08 | High Yield Bond Spreads Seem Wide Vis-à-vis a Number of Primary Drivers |
| 07-JUL-08 | Record Oil Prices Delay Housing's Stabilization and Prolong the Travails of Financial Institutions |
| 03-JUL-08 | Payrolls, Unemployment, Jobless Claims, and the ISM's Service-Sector Index Imply an Fed Rate Cut is More Likely than a Hike |
| 03-JUL-08 | Mild Rise of US Wages Both Weighs Against a Fed Rate Hike and Outruns Pace of 2001 Recession |
| 03-JUL-08 | ECB Rate Hike May be a One-Time Event if Wage Growth Ebbs |
| 02-JUL-08 | Deceleration of Unit Labor Costs Improves Outlook for 2009's US Labor Market |
| 02-JUL-08 | New Orders Largely Withstand Credit Crunch and Still Compare Favorably with 2001's Recession |
| 02-JUL-08 | Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Sink by 21% Annually … Energy Price Surge Helps to Erode Home Affordability |
| 01-JUL-08 | Quarterly Contraction of Residential Construction Outlays Narrows … Resilient Nonresidential Construction Faces a Slump |
| 01-JUL-08 | Exports Help ISM's Factory Index Transcend Drags of Housing and Auto Recessions |
| 01-JUL-08 | Gas Price Surge Sends June's Seasonally-Adjusted Auto Sales to a 15-Year Low |
| 30-JUN-08 | Oil Price Surge Swells High-Yield Bond Spreads |
| 30-JUN-08 | Unit Labor Costs May Matter More to Aggregate Profit Margin Ratio than Energy Costs |
| 30-JUN-08 | Growth of Income Available for Discretionary Spending Gets a Needed Boost from Rebates |
| 27-JUN-08 | Speculative Excess Can Impart Harmful Externalities and Damage the Overall Economy |
| 27-JUN-08 | Rebates May Explain Why Consumer Confidence Now Understates Consumer Spending |
| 27-JUN-08 | Japan's Energy-Inspired Jump by CPI Inflation Does Not Prompt Rate Hike Talk |
| 27-JUN-08 | Rebates Lift Consumer Spending and Boost May's Savings to Record High … Subpar Employment Income Growth May Curb Inflation |
| 26-JUN-08 | State Jobless Benefit Data Show Slack Labor Market … April's Rise by Existing Home Sales May Not Last |
| 26-JUN-08 | Markets Dispute FOMC's Claim of Diminished Economic Risk |
| 25-JUN-08 | Experience of 2002-2003 Shows That It's Premature To Dismiss the Possibility of More Rate Cuts |
| 25-JUN-08 | Chicago Fed Index of US Economic Activity Says a Recession is Much More Likely than a Fed Rate Hike |
| 25-JUN-08 | Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Warn of Fewer Home Sales and Lower Home Prices |
| 25-JUN-08 | Sluggish Durable Goods Orders Weigh against Fed Rate Hike |
| 24-JUN-08 | Case-Shiller Overstates Drop in Market Value of US Housing For Now |
| 24-JUN-08 | Consumer Income Expectations Sinks to New Record Low as Inflation Expectations Stay at May's Zenith |
| 23-JUN-08 | Financial Market Stress Is Now Greater Compared to April 30th's Fed Rate Cut |
| 23-JUN-08 | Current State of US Economy and Financial Markets Implies a Fed Rate Cut is More Likely than a Hike |
| 20-JUN-08 | 2008's High Yield Bond Issuance Is Likely to Incur Deepest Annual Plunge Since 2000 |
| 19-JUN-08 | Unit Labor Costs' Deceleration Limits Layoffs and Helps Profit Margins Withstand Commodity Cost Escalation |
| 18-JUN-08 | More Downgrades to Caa3 or Lower Signal a Rising Default Rate |
| 18-JUN-08 | Home Prices Could Suffer from a Disinflationary Rate Hike |
| 17-JUN-08 | Q2-08 Shows Record Number of US High-Yield Downgrades |
| 17-JUN-08 | Capacity Utilization's Shallow Dip Ought to Ward Off a Deep Plunge by Profits |
| 17-JUN-08 | Fed Rate Hike Could Worsen Matters for Subprime ARMs |
| 16-JUN-08 | June's Record Low Housing Market Index Implies a Bottom for Housing Does Not Yet Impend |
| 16-JUN-08 | Weak Dollar, Record Foreign Ownership of US Treasuries and Euro-Zone's Yield Advantage Increase Vulnerability of US Treasury Bonds |
| 16-JUN-08 | An Aggressive Move by Central Banks against Rapid Energy Price Growth Could Be Costly |
| 13-JUN-08 | National Activity Index Favors a Fed Rate Cut … Past Spikes for Consumer CPI Expectations Were Followed By Slower Inflation |
| 13-JUN-08 | Stable Core CPI Inflation, Sluggish Wages and Unsteady Economy Preclude a Fed Rate Hike |
| 12-JUN-08 | US Economy May Be Incapable of Shouldering a 4.2% Benchmark Treasury Yield |
| 12-JUN-08 | Sales and Tax Data Imply Profits Fare Better During Current Slump vis-à-vis 2001's Recession |
| 12-JUN-08 | Despite May's Strong Showing, Downside Risks Still Mar Retail Sales' Outlook |
| 11-JUN-08 | Last Two Major Bottoms for Fed Funds Occurred Amid Notable Improvements by Credit |
| 11-JUN-08 | Limp Beige Book Implies a Rate Cut is More Likely than a Rate Hike |
| 11-JUN-08 | Investors Question Fed's Grasp of Underlying Economy |
| 11-JUN-08 | Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Still Warn of Fewer Home Sales and Lower Home Prices |
| 10-JUN-08 | Fed Risks Undoing Progress at Financial Market Stabilization |
| 10-JUN-08 | Above-Trend Export Growth Is Joined by Subpar Profits |
| 09-JUN-08 | A 2% Trough for Fed Funds May Mean the Worst Has Passed for the Economy and Credit |
| 09-JUN-08 | Uncertainties Stemming from Energy Price Surge Question Durability of April's Jump by Pending Home Sales |
| 09-JUN-08 | Credit Spreads Did Not Mimic the Equity Market Panic of June 6th |
| 06-JUN-08 | Elevated Levels of Credit Stress Preclude a Rate Hike |
| 06-JUN-08 | Employment Income Quickens, But Not By Enough to Swell Inflation Risk |
| 06-JUN-08 | May's Jump by the US' Jobless Rate Exaggerated Any Increase in Labor Market Slack … Another Labor Utilization Rate Dipped by Merely 0.1 of a Percentage Point |
| 05-JUN-08 | Faster Growth of Debt Vis-à-vis Profits Precludes the Nearness of an Extended Narrowing of Corporate Bond Yield Spreads |
| 05-JUN-08 | Business Debt Mostly Transcends Credit Crunch, but Household Debt Slows Noticeably, while ABS/MBS Debt Contracts |
| 05-JUN-08 | Financial Markets Give Short Shrift to Record High Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates |
| 05-JUN-08 | Recent Trend of Jobless Claims Weighs against a Weaker-Than-Expected May Employment Report |
| 04-JUN-08 | Unit Labor Costs Improve Outlooks for Profitability and Employment |
| 04-JUN-08 | Wider Spreads May Prompt a Rate Cut … Record Low Income Expectations Counter Jump by Inflation Expectations |
| 04-JUN-08 | ISM Indices Refute Recession Claims and Weigh Against Marked Erosion of Profits |
| 04-JUN-08 | Housing and Auto Sales Highlight US Economy's Considerable Downside Risks |
| 04-JUN-08 | ADP Estimate of Private-Sector Jobs Implies Employment Report Will At Least Match Expectations |
| 03-JUN-08 | A 2% Bottom for Fed Funds Requires a Q2-08 Bottom for US Economic Activity |
| 03-JUN-08 | Elevated Credit Risks Imply Fed Funds May Not Bottom at 2% |
| 03-JUN-08 | US Motor Vehicle Sales Get "Greened" the Hard Way … May's Sales Pace Was Slowest Since July 1998 |
| 03-JUN-08 | Orders Look Flat, On Balance … High Tech Barely Grows as Pharmaceuticals Sink |
| 03-JUN-08 | Will a Secular Climb by Price Inflation Lessen Credit Risks? |
| 02-JUN-08 | Nonresidential Construction Spending Tops Views, but Should Eventually Slow Considerably |
| 02-JUN-08 | ISM Factory Index Predicts Current Nonfinancial-Corporate Profits Slump Will Be Milder Than 2001's Plunge |
| 30-MAY-08 | Bank Holdings of Private-Sector Debt Ease, but C&I Loans and Nonfinancial Company CP Grow by More than 10% Yearly |
| 30-MAY-08 | CDX Spreads Call for Narrower Bond Spreads … Wide High Yield Spreads Slash M&A |
| 30-MAY-08 | Subpar Credit Rating Revisions Warn of Higher Default Rate |
| 30-MAY-08 | US Real GDP Is Likely to Stall in Q2-08 … Loss of Affordability Adds to Housing's Woes |
| 29-MAY-08 | Nonfinancial-Corporate Profits, Sales and Net Interest Expense All Fared Worse During 2001's Slump |
| 29-MAY-08 | Declining Profit Margin Ratio Warns Against Expecting Much Thinner Corporate Bond Yield Spreads |
| 29-MAY-08 | Core PCE Price Index Inflation Questions Worry Over Runaway Price Growth |
| 29-MAY-08 | State Jobless Benefits Data Warn Against Being Too Quick to Declare a Bottom for US Economy |
| 28-MAY-08 | Commodity Price Softening May Spread from Industrial Metals to Crude Oil |
| 28-MAY-08 | Gap Between 2-Year Treasury Yield and Fed Funds Hints of an Easing of Current Slump, but Does Not Rule Out More Rate Cuts |
| 28-MAY-08 | Core Durable Goods Orders Compare Favorably With Recessions of 2001 and 1990-1991 |
| 28-MAY-08 | Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Hint of a Third Consecutive Flop for Housing's Peak Spring Selling Season |
| 27-MAY-08 | Consumer Expectations: Record High for Inflation Contrasts Vividly with Income's Record Low |
| 27-MAY-08 | New Impediments to a Steadying of Home Sales Should Extend Home Price Deflation |
| 23-MAY-08 | Surging Oil Prices amid a Slower Economy Ups Macro Risks … Base Metals Prices Tend to Lead Oil Prices |
| 23-MAY-08 | Frightful Energy Prices Delay Stabilization of US Home Sales |
| 23-MAY-08 | Credit Rating Revisions, Defaults and Delinquencies All Favor Another Fed Rate Cut … Special-Event Downgrades Plunge |
| 22-MAY-08 | Inflation's Spread and Durability Are in Doubt … Higher Treasury Yields Could Worsen Housing's Plight |
| 22-MAY-08 | Labor Market's Mild Deterioration is at Odds With Consumer Confidence's Plunge |
| 21-MAY-08 | Release of FOMC Minutes Intensifies Financial Market Stress |
| 21-MAY-08 | Rise by Bank Credit Card Delinquency Rate is More Worrisome than that of C&I Loans |
| 21-MAY-08 | Bank Residential Real Estate Loan Delinquency Rate Sets New Record High |
| 20-MAY-08 | Deceleration of Wages and Salaries Should Curb Core Inflation |
| 20-MAY-08 | Chicago Fed's National Activity Index Says Recession is Here |
| 20-MAY-08 | Spreads Were Narrowing Up Until May 20th's Equity Sell-Off |
| 19-MAY-08 | Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Imply Consensus May Underestimate 2008's Likely Narrowing of US Trade Deficit |
| 19-MAY-08 | Energy Price Surge Mars an Otherwise Improving Outlook |
| 19-MAY-08 | Credit Crunch has yet to Halt Growth of Private-Sector Credit |
| 19-MAY-08 | Decidedly Subpar Upgrade Ratios Edge Up from Q1-08 Readings and Stay Well Above 2002 Lows |
| 16-MAY-08 | Inflation-Driven Expectations of Higher Bond Yields Could Help to Steady Home Sales |
| 16-MAY-08 | High Anxiety Regarding Rapid Energy Price Inflation and Persistent Home Price Deflation Sinks Consumer Confidence |
| 13-MAY-08 | Subpar Retail Sales fare Better than Expected |
| 12-MAY-08 | LIBOR's Drop may Trim Net Interest Expense and Help Prevent a Further Widening of Corporate Bond Yield Spreads |
| 12-MAY-08 | Corporate Income Tax Receipts Suggest Profits Incurred a Much Deeper Slide During 2001 |
| 09-MAY-08 | Wide High-Yield Bond Spreads Are Likely to Persist |
| 08-MAY-08 | Both Jobless Claims and Core Business Sales Imply Current Slump is Milder than 2001's Recession |
| 08-MAY-08 | Same Store Sales Trail 2001's Pace, but Core Retail Sales Probably Firmed in April |
| 08-MAY-08 | Thinner Corporate Bond Yield Spreads Would Help Close Gap Between Mortgage Yields and Treasury Yields |
| 07-MAY-08 | Dollar Strengthens, but Stocks Plunge … Consumer Credit and Home Equity Loans Jumped Higher in March |
| 07-MAY-08 | April's Decline by Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Warns Of Yet another Monthly Setback for Pending Home Sales |
| 07-MAY-08 | Productivity and Unit Labor Costs Improve Prospects for Profits, Employment and Core Inflation |
| 06-MAY-08 | Subpar Economic Growth Should Rein In Benchmark Interest Rates Through Q1-09 |
| 06-MAY-08 | Containment of Unit Labor Costs Can Benefit Profitability and Steady Employment |
| 06-MAY-08 | Bankers Generally Tightened Up in Q2-08, but Thinner Credit Risk Premia and Firmer Share Prices Could Ease Tightening of Loan Criteria |
| 06-MAY-08 | ISM's Service Index and Broad Composite Revealed an Expansion of Activity for April |
| 05-MAY-08 | Test |
| 02-MAY-08 | Credit Worth's Slide Outside of Housing and Related Industries Seems Milder than that of 2000-2002, but Fundamentals Still Favor Caution |
| 02-MAY-08 | Payroll's Contraction Moderates … Unemployment Is Now Lower For 2008 to Date |
| 01-MAY-08 | Residential Construction Spending Incurred Deepest Monthly Setback Since October 1981 … Bottom for Home Sales Needs Lower Mortgage Yields |
| 01-MAY-08 | ISM Factory Index Has Yet to Confirm Recession's Presence |
| 01-MAY-08 | Jobs Data May Test Investor Confidence … April's Auto Sales Plunge 14% Yearly … Caa-Grade Bonds Make 2008 Debut in New Issue Market |
| 30-APR-08 | Still Wide Credit Spreads Signal More Fed Rate Cuts |
| 30-APR-08 | US Avoids Recession for Now, But Downside Risks Persist … Core PCE Index Inflation Ebbs |
| 29-APR-08 | Despite Improved Financial Markets, Downside Risks Still Dominate the Outlook |
| 29-APR-08 | Both OFHEO's Home Price Index and That of Case-Shiller Have Shortcomings … OFHEO and Case -Shiller Show a Record Divergence in April … Foreclosures Surge |
| 29-APR-08 | Consumer Confidence Survey Reveals Recession and the Worst Outlook for Household Income Growth on Record |
| 28-APR-08 | Notable Improvements in Financial Markets Remain at Risk … Stagflation Fears Seem Overdone |
| 28-APR-08 | High Yield Bond Spreads Seem Wide Vis-à-vis Some Explanatory Variables, but Material Downside Risks Persist |
| 25-APR-08 | A Coincident Index Suggests the US is in a Mild Recession for Now |
| 24-APR-08 | Fed May Still Deem Home Price Deflation To Be a Bigger Threat Than Commodity Price Inflation |
| 24-APR-08 | Exceptionally Low Ratio of New Home Sales per Worker Favors Nearness of Bottom for Home Sales |
| 24-APR-08 | Despite Cheap Dollar, US' Durable Goods Orders Are Lackluster |
| 24-APR-08 | Jobless Claims Signal a Mild Recession |
| 23-APR-08 | Costlier Energy Can Deflate Confidence and Impede Housing's Stabilization |
| 23-APR-08 | High-Yield Downgrades Have Yet to Convincingly Warn of a Well Above Average Default Rate |
| 23-APR-08 | Narrowing of High Yield Bond Spreads May Thin Ranks of Distressed Securities |
| 23-APR-08 | Commodity Prices Tended to Soften During Previous Credit Crunches |
| 22-APR-08 | 1-Month Prime Financial Company CP Rate Tops That Of Nonfinancial Companies By 74 BPs … Fed Will Focus On Financial Market Stress |
| 22-APR-08 | Fed Might Be Wrong to Focus on Energy Price Surge at the Expense of Home Price Deflation … Soaring Fuel Costs Might Best Be Remedied by Policymakers Outside the Fed |
| 22-APR-08 | Annual Decline of Median Price of Existing Homes Sold May Overstate Severity of US Home Price Deflation |
| 22-APR-08 | OFHEO Home Price Index May Be More Comprehensive than Case-Shiller … OFHEO Home Price Index Rose by 0.6% Monthly in February |
| 21-APR-08 | Most Credit Risk Premia Narrow From Mid-March Highs |
| 21-APR-08 | Chicago Fed's National Activity Index Reveals a Mild Recession and Slower Core Inflation, Which Together Call for a 1.75% Fed Funds Rate on April 30 |
| 18-APR-08 | CDX Spreads and Fed's Implied Confidence about Nearness of a Bottom for the Economy Signal Further Narrowing of Corporate Bond Yield Spreads |
| 18-APR-08 | Profits and Financial Markets Benefit from Cheap Dollar and Brisk Foreign Expenditures … By One Measure, Profits Far Outrun Those of 2001's Recession |
| 18-APR-08 | Post July 2007 Changes of Private Sector Credit and Of Commercial Paper Differ Considerably |
| 17-APR-08 | A 25 Basis Point Cut on April 30th Does Not Assure an Impending End to Fed Ease … Financial System Stress Still Menaces the Supply of Credit |
| 17-APR-08 | High Yield Bond Issuance Did Not Collapse for Long During 2001's Recession Year |
| 17-APR-08 | Although Middle Atlantic Manufacturing Surveys Signal a Recession, Capital Spending Plans Hold Up Relatively Well |
| 17-APR-08 | Jobless Benefits Data Have Yet To Indicate a Severe Recession |
| 16-APR-08 | A 50 Basis Point Rate Cut May Facilitate a Further Alleviation of Financial Market Stress |
| 16-APR-08 | Shallow Dip By Capacity Utilization Should Limit Deterioration of Profitability |
| 16-APR-08 | Beige Book Says Economy Slowed, But 5 Districts Offered Hope for Housing, While C&I Loans Escaped Much Tighter Lending Criteria for Now |
| 15-APR-08 | Energy Price Surge Sinks Confidence and Adds to Debt Repayment Risks … Mild Rise by Credit Card Delinquency Rate Thus Far |
| 15-APR-08 | NY State Manufacturers Pare Planned Capital Spending Growth |
| 15-APR-08 | Home Price Deflation May Matter More to Policymakers than Rapid Headline Price Inflation |
| 14-APR-08 | Unlike Two Previous Recessions, Q1-08's Business Sales Should Outrun Inventories Year-to-Year |
| 14-APR-08 | Q1-08 Shows Smallest Yearly Rise by Core Retail Sales Since Q4-01 |
| 11-APR-08 | Investment-Grade Bond Issuance Holds Up Much Better Than High Yield … Prime Non-ABS CP Rates Plunge and Hint of a Future Drop by LIBOR |
| 11-APR-08 | Malfunctioning Credit Market Helps to Swell Bank Holdings of Private-Sector Loans by 11.1% for Credit-Crunch-to-Date |
| 11-APR-08 | GE's Q1-08 Results and Early-April's Souring of Consumer Sentiment Add to Financial Market Stress |
| 10-APR-08 | US Export Growth Accelerates as Total Trade Defies Recession's Presence |
| 10-APR-08 | Relative to 2001 Recession, State Jobless Benefit Data Compare Favorably, While Same Store Sales Fare Worse |
| 09-APR-08 | US Nonfinancial-Corporate Finances Surpass Those of Last Two Recessions |
| 09-APR-08 | More Downgrades to Caa3 or Lower Warn of Higher Default Rate |
| 09-APR-08 | Annual Change of Business Sales Compares Favorably With That of 2001 Recession Thus Far |
| 08-APR-08 | TIPS Show that Inflation Expectations Have Yet to Become Unhinged |
| 08-APR-08 | Declining Home Sales Favor 1.75% Fed Funds Rate by End of April |
| 08-APR-08 | Wide High-Yield Bond Spread Favors Fed Rate Cuts and Higher Jobless Rate |
| 07-APR-08 | High Yield Bond Default Rate May Fall Short of Its Highs of Last Two Recessions |
| 07-APR-08 | Firmer Equity Market Does Not Constitute a Bottom for US Economic Activity |
| 04-APR-08 | Bank Holdings of Private-Sector Loans Expand by 11.5% for Credit-Crunch-to-Date |
| 04-APR-08 | Capital Spending Growth, Healthier Balance Sheets of Nonfinancial Corporations, Fed Rate Cuts, Cheap Dollar and Fiscal Stimulus may Limit Unemployment's Rise |
| 04-APR-08 | Leisure, Hospitality And Health Care Industries Lead US Jobs Growth, While High Tech Lags Behind |
| 04-APR-08 | March's Employment Report Included the Bad News of Fewer Jobs With the Good News of Faster Income Growth and Longer Hours |
| 03-APR-08 | Q1-08 Incurs Lowest High-Yield Upgrade Ratio Since Q4-02 |
| 03-APR-08 | ISM's Broad Index Supports Recession Views, but Has Yet to Favor a Deep Slump |
| 03-APR-08 | Highest Bank Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate Since 1992 … State Jobless Benefit Data Have Yet to Signal a Severe Labor Market Distress |
| 02-APR-08 | High Technology Still Lags Its Performance of 1991-2000 … Scientists and Engineers from Abroad Might Help |
| 02-APR-08 | Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Have Yet to Hint of a Stabilization of Home Sales |
| 02-APR-08 | Some Business Credit Risk Premia Narrow, but to Still Wide Spreads |
| 02-APR-08 | ADP's Estimate of Private-Sector Payrolls Fared Much Worse at Start of 2001 Recession |
| 02-APR-08 | MF Warns of Slower World Economy Mostly Because of Diminished US Outlook … Fed Chief Concurs With IMF's View on US Growth |
| 01-APR-08 | Treasury Yield Curve Bodes Well for Real GDP Growth One Year Hence and Hints of Thinner Corporate Credit Risk Premia |
| 01-APR-08 | Commercial Construction Spending Shrinks … Home Improvement Outlays Thrive |
| 01-APR-08 | ISM's Slide Seems Mild Compared to Recessions of 2001 and 1990-1991 |
| 01-APR-08 | Pre-Foreclosures Jump Higher in March … Just Four States Supply 60% of Pre-Foreclosures in Q1-08 |
| 01-APR-08 | US Auto Sales Support Recession Views |
| 31-MAR-08 | Commodity Price Inflation Highlights Brisk Pace of Growth Outside the US |
| 31-MAR-08 | Private Mortgage Insurers Report Fewer Delinquencies and More Cures from Jan-08 to Feb-08 |
| 28-MAR-08 | Slower Core Inflation Reinforces Expectations of a 1.75% Fed Funds Rate by End of April |
| 28-MAR-08 | Bank Holdings of Private-Sector Loans Are Up by 11.5% from July 2007 |
| 28-MAR-08 | Home Sales Grew Despite Very Low Consumer Confidence of 1992 and 1993 |
| 28-MAR-08 | Consumer Spending may Sustain Real GDP Growth for Q1-08 … Employment Income Compares Favorably With 2001 Recession |
| 27-MAR-08 | Profit Margins Were Thinner and Interest Coverage Was Weaker at Starts of Last Two Recessions |
| 27-MAR-08 | US Profits and Economy Get Help From Abroad |
| 27-MAR-08 | Fed Rate Cuts Can Help to Thin Credit Risk Premia |
| 27-MAR-08 | Jobless Claims Have Yet to Warn of a Marked Slackening of US Labor Market |
| 26-MAR-08 | Highest VIX Since March 2003 Joined by Widest High-Yield Bond Spread Since March 2003 Despite Still Low Median High-Yield EDF |
| 26-MAR-08 | Machinery Sinks Orders for US Durable Goods … EU and Japan Show Signs of De-Coupling from US Slump |
| 26-MAR-08 | February's New Home Sales Top Expectations, but Housing Needs More Help from Lower Mortgage Yields … Mortgage Applications Turn Higher |
| 25-MAR-08 | Dive by Consumer Confidence Follows from Labor Market Slack that Will Curb Both Spending and Inflation |
| 25-MAR-08 | Home Price Deflation Deepens to New Low … OFHEO Introduces Monthly Home Price Index |
| 24-MAR-08 | Chicago Fed Index Reveals a Recession That May Be Finished by Q3-08 According to Treasury Yield Curve |
| 24-MAR-08 | Existing Home Sales Grow Thanks to Improved Affordability that Includes Sharply Lower Ratio of Home Prices to Income |
| 20-MAR-08 | Above-Trend Growth Expected for World Economy Despite US' Slump |
| 20-MAR-08 | State Jobless Benefit Data Have Yet to Warn of a Harsh Recession |
| 20-MAR-08 | Leading Indicators Favor Recession … Philly Fed Survey Warns of Weak Capital Spending |
| 19-MAR-08 | Investment-Grade Corporate Bond Issuance Thrives and CDX Spreads Narrow Despite March 19's Stock Price Dive |
| 19-MAR-08 | Boom in Commercial Construction Gives Way to a Credit-Induced Slump |
| 19-MAR-08 | Mortgage Applications Reveal the Drag of Wider Mortgage Yield Spreads over Treasuries |
| 18-MAR-08 | Fed Cannot Ease Financial Stress Unless Stock Price Volatility Subsides |
| 18-MAR-08 | Producer Price Inflation Was Rampant Outside Of Homebuilding Materials |
| 18-MAR-08 | Home Sales Should Benefit from an Easing of FNMA and FHLMC Capital Requirements |
| 17-MAR-08 | Steepening of the Treasury Yield Curve Hints of a Bottom That's Not Yet in Sight |
| 17-MAR-08 | Shallow Decline of Capacity Utilization Limits Profitability's Downside |
| 14-MAR-08 | Consumer Confidence Resides in the Bottom 15% of Its Historical Distribution |
| 14-MAR-08 | Financial Market Stress and the Imperative of a Decent Peak Spring Selling Season for Housing may Prompt a 100 Basis Points Rate Cut on March 18 |
| 14-MAR-08 | Highly Leveraged Companies Must Contend With Tight Credit and a Declining Economy |
| 13-MAR-08 | Business Sales Support a Passable Showing for Nonfinancial-Company Profits |
| 13-MAR-08 | Jobless Benefits Did Not Worsen the Jobs Outlook Implying that Retail Sales May Not Shrink Again in March |
| 12-MAR-08 | Corporate Income Tax Receipts Warn of More in the Way of Subpar Profitability |
| 11-MAR-08 | Rapid Export Growth Might Yet Preserve Real GDP Growth |
| 11-MAR-08 | Private RMBS Outstanding Had Advanced In Each of the 68 Quarters Ended Q2-07 |
| 11-MAR-08 | Much More Is Needed In Terms of Higher Share Prices and Narrower Credit Risk Premia |
| 11-MAR-08 | More Downgrades to Caa3 or Lower Warn of Higher Default Rate |
| 10-MAR-08 | Stock Price Volatility Matters More to High Yield Bond Spreads Than Does Recession |
| 10-MAR-08 | For US Recessions Since 1969, Base Metals Price Averaged a Peak to Trough Drop of -33% |
| 10-MAR-08 | Q1-08 Growth of Commerce Department's Business Sales Should Well Outpace Yearly Changes of Late 2000 and 2001 |
| 10-MAR-08 | Special Factors May Explain February's Marked Slowing of Chinese Exports |
| 07-MAR-08 | Despite 2007's Record Borrowing, Corporate Finances Compare Favorably With Two Previous Recessions |
| 07-MAR-08 | Jobs Reports Warns of Recession and Sluggish Spending, but Trims Inflation Risks |
| 06-MAR-08 | Subprime ARM Delinquency Rate Jumps Up From a Q4-04 Low Of 9.83% to Q4-07's Record 20.02% |
| 06-MAR-08 | Household Net Worth Plunged By $5.4 Trillion from Q1-00 through Q3-02 yet Real Consumer Spending Grew By 2.9% Annually |
| 06-MAR-08 | Jobless Claims and Same Store Sales Hint of an Easing of the Economic Slump |
| 05-MAR-08 | Beige Book's Sluggish Economy and Softer Job Market Limit Support from Lower Treasury Yields |
| 05-MAR-08 | Faster Rise of Sales Vis-à-vis Unit Labor Costs Implies Profits Generally Still Grow |
| 05-MAR-08 | ADP Warns of a Recessionary Drop by February's Payrolls |
| 05-MAR-08 | Recession May Be More Damaging to Credit Quality than is Stagflation |
| 04-MAR-08 | Credit Rating Downgrades Mount Despite Relatively Healthy Balance Sheets |
| 04-MAR-08 | Double-Digit Percentage Advances Are Commonplace Among Emerging Market Countries |
| 03-MAR-08 | US' Sales of Cars and Light Trucks Struggle |
| 03-MAR-08 | ISM Factory Index Has Yet To Validate Recession Claims |
| 03-MAR-08 | After Nine Extremely Robust Quarters, Nonresidential Construction Spending is Likely to Contract in Q1-08 |
| 29-FEB-08 | Feb-08's ISM Manufacturing Index Should be Lowest since Dec-01 |
| 29-FEB-08 | Commodity Prices Would Sag if World Economic Growth Was Subpar |
| 29-FEB-08 | January's Employment Income Exceeded Views, but Sagging Confidence Warns of Flat Consumer Spending |
| 29-FEB-08 | Analysts Say Subprime Mortgage Losses Will Match 2006's $600 Billion of Subprime Mortgage Originations |
| 28-FEB-08 | Capital Spending's Measured Pace Lessens its Downside Risk |
| 28-FEB-08 | Capital Spending Has Yet to Warn of Recession |
| 28-FEB-08 | Q4-07's Shrinkage of S&P 500 Operating Profits Lacked Breadth |
| 28-FEB-08 | Mortgage Yield Spread Shows High Correlation With Single-A Industrial Bond Yield Spread |
| 28-FEB-08 | Home Price Deflation Fears Offset Much Improved Home Affordability |
| 28-FEB-08 | Inventory Depletion Skewed Q4-07's Domestic Spending Lower |
| 28-FEB-08 | Jobless Claims Still Fall Short of Pace at Start of 2001 Recession |
| 27-FEB-08 | Weak Dollar is Still of a Net Benefit to US Economy and Earnings |
